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As John Deeth notes, Sandy Greiner, the eight term Republican incumbent from House District 89 (Washington County along with parts of Johnson and Jefferson Counties) will not seek re-election. Greiner faced a very competitive challenge from Mark Nolte in 2006 who, despite running in a heavily Republican district (2,000 more Republicans than Democrats) and not being a targeted candidate, lost by only 1,100 votes. Nolte was a long shot against Greiner in 2006 but he should be a very competitive candidate in 2008 since he will not be facing an incumbent.
Greiner’s retirement is the first of an expected wave of retirements among Republican lawmakers who have no desire to serve in the minority. It is typical for a minority party that has just lost power after a long reign as the majority to endure a wave of retirements. For example, in 1996, after the Republican sweep of both houses of Congress, 8 Democratic Senators and 30 Democratic Congressmen retired. This avalanche of open seats enabled the Republicans to consolidate their majorities in Congress. It is expected that Republican retirements will enable the Democrats to do the same in Des Moines. The Democrats already have several good opportunities to pick up seats in the State Senate before factoring in any open seats. As more Republicans retire, even more seats will come into play as popular incumbents like Greiner decide to leave politics. The Republicans have been losing seats in both the State House and the State Senate for the past two elections and if more incumbents like Greiner decide to retire, the third time will most definitely not be the charm.
February 14th, 2007
If Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post can already start looking at 2008 US Senate races, we feel like it’s not too soon to start looking at 2008 Iowa Senate races. Today, we’re going to take a look at the top Democratic pickup opportunities. Although the Democrats picked up seats in 2004 to reach a 25-25 tie in the Senate, the Republicans will still be defending 15 seats in 2008, 5 more than the Democrats. Not only will the GOP go into 2008 with more seats to defend, they will be a party that is deeply divided. Nearly half of the Republicans in the State Senate walked out of the leadership election in November. They haven’t become much more unified since. Here are a list of the three most vulnerable seats that the divided Republican caucus will have to defend in 2008:
1. Larry McKibben (Marshall and Hardin Counties). McKibben represents a district that Chet Culver won by nearly 1500 votes in 2006. It consists of Marshall County, a traditionally strong Democratic county and Hardin, a mildly Republican leaning county. In 2004, McKibben edged out the Democratic candidate, Wayne Sawtelle, a labor activist, by less than 800 votes. McKibben owed his victory to piling up a huge lead in Hardin County, despite running significantly behind George Bush in Marshall County. The large labor community in Marshalltown will still be gunning for McKibben in 2008 and McKibben won’t be running on anywhere near as strong a ticket in 2008. With Tom Harkin up for Senate and Selden Spencer making a more serious attempt to run against Tom Latham, McKibben won’t have the advantages he had in 2004. He’s hanging on by a slim thread and this race will probably be decided again by less than 1000 votes.
2. James Hahn (Cedar, most of Muscatine and a little of Johnson counties). Hahn, one of the 8 anti-Lundby Republicans in the State Senate, defeated incumbent Democrat Thomas Fiegen after redistricting in 2004. Fiegen previously only represented the Cedar County part of the district and lost his bid for re-election in the new district by less than 2000 votes. This will be another place where the Democrats will benefit from having a much stronger ticket. The 2004 Democratic candidate for U.S. House, long-shot Dave Franker will be replaced on the ticket by incumbent Representative Dave Loebsack. This means there will be a whole lot more resources available in Muscatine County, a county which isn’t that important in a statewide race but is a crucial swing county in the 2nd Congressional District. John Kerry won Muscatine County in 2004 by 500 votes despite a weak showing statewide. Chet Culver won it by 2000 votes. If the Democratic Presidential nominee has a Chet Culver-like performance in the Presidential and gets 55% of the vote, this seat should go. If Iowa continues to be a tightly contested swing state, it probably won’t.
3. Mary Lundby (Linn) Although Lundby is the Republican leader in the State Senate, she is one of the most moderate members of the Republican Caucus who replaced former leader Stew Iverson in a coup in April 2006. She was also one of two Republican State Senators to oppose an amendment to the Iowa Constitution to ban gay marriage during the last legislative session. Her socially moderate views make her a good fit for a State Senate district that has about 12,000 Democrats, 12,000 Republicans and 17,000 Independents in the suburbs of Cedar Rapids that she won with nearly 60% of the vote in 2004. However, it does not make her a good fit in the Republican Party of Iowa which is dominated by social conservatives. Her only ally in the Republican caucus on the gay marriage issue, Maggie Tinsman, was defeated in the 2006 primary by an extreme right wing organization called Iowans for Tax Relief. She was beaten by a fellow who can best be described as the Steve King of East Iowa, David Hartsuch. Considering that half the Republicans in the State Senate don’t support Lundby, it won’t be a surprise if Iowans for Tax Relief tried to beat Lundby in the primary. If they do, an ultra conservative will be very vulnerable in this moderate seat. The other possibility is that Lundby, a cancer survivor may call it quits. After all, why would anyone in their right mind really want to manage a Senate caucus with a proclivity for sectarian violence that would make an Iraqi province blush? If the seat becomes open, it will become an extremely competitive race and with compartively high costs to run a campaign in the Cedar Rapids media market, it will easily become the most expensive State Senate race in the state. However, if Lundby stays on the nature of the district makes it Republican favored but still competitive. However, the mix of all three possibilities, a Republican primary, retirement and re-election keeps this seat highly competitive.
Other vulnerable Republicans are (in alphabetical order): Jeff Angelo (South-Central Iowa), Jerry Behn (Boone and Dallas Counties), John Putney (Benton, Grundy, Tama and part of Iowa County), Brad Zaun (suburban Polk County) and Mark Ziemann (Allamakee, Chickasaw, Howard and Winneshiek Counties)
February 6th, 2007
Mark Warner’s PAC, Forward Together, is holding an online vote to determine which Iowa legislature candidates it will give $5000 (House) or $6500 (Senate). It’s a great perk that presidential hopefuls do this sort of thing in Iowa, since that amount of money really makes a huge difference in a state race.
Please cast your vote for Eric Palmer now.
Eric Palmer is challenging extremist conservative Danny Carroll, who he came painfully close to unseating in ‘04. Carroll has had the benefit of visits from conservative fundraising powerhouses John “I’m a panderer not a uniter” McCain, Sam “I hate evolution” Brownback, Haley “I hate Jews and Blacks” Barbour, and Newt “My conservatism doesn’t need explaining” Gingrich. He’s also received a ton of money from convicted felon Thomas Grabinski.
Just to remind you a little more why Eric Palmer deserves your vote (as if you haven’t heard our spiel before), Carroll is also known for his attempts to suppress Grinnell College students’ votes and his outlandish ideas about gay marriage.
Please take a moment to make Mark Warner give Eric some dollas.
September 19th, 2006
Okay, while it is not specifically related to Iowa, it is specifically related to Progress, so it is going on the Blog.
Just a few minutes ago the AP reported that former House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-TX) announced today that he is resigning from the House of Representatives. The stated reason is that his reelection campaign was more difficult and more costly than he was prepared for (although he was sure to note that he thought he could’ve won, and of course, it was those pesky Liberals’ faults for being so darn negative).
And now for the spin: Republicans say that they were expecting DeLay to resign later this spring, and that he served our country well, blah, blah, blah. DeLay denied that his resignation has anything to do with lobbyist Jack Abramoff or his recent conviction.
“I know that the left has used it to try to brand me with guilt by association, but I have always served honorably and ethically,” DeLay said. “I’ve never broken the law or the spirit of the law or even a House rule.”
Democrats are of course calling this a huge victory, stressing that this goes beyond DeLay and has greater implications for the Republican Party.
“Tom DeLay’s decision to leave Congress is just the latest piece of evidence that the Republican Party is a party in disarray, a party out of ideas and out of energy,” said Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
DeLay has been plagued by scandal lately, not only in connection to Abramoff. DeLay’s aide, Tony Rudy, has confessed to conspiring with Abramoff and committing illegal actions while working for DeLay. In September DeLay stepped down as House Majority Leader after being indicted in Texas for illegally steering funds from corporate donors to Texas legislative candidates.
No word yet on whether there will be a special election held in Texas or if the seat will remain vacant until the elections in November.
So long, Mr. Hammer.
April 4th, 2006
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