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More than a week after the primary, it’s time to put Leonard Boswell’s victory over Ed Fallon into perspective. While the Fallon campaign is claiming “a partial victory,” the facts don’t bear out the silver lining that Fallon is trying to discern from his defeat. (Although after such a devastating loss, one certainly can understand while Fallon is looking for a silver lining). Fallon seems to think that his primarying Boswell was the reason Leonard Boswell’s voting record suddenly improved in 2007. However, Fallon didn’t have anything to do with it. Nancy Pelosi did. Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives meant that Republicans weren’t able to bring bills up that would place Democrats in swing districts like Boswell in tough positions. Once they weren’t and once Democrats had a governing majority in the House, Boswell was able to take better votes even though he still represents a district that George Bush won in 2004. Boswell supported a lot of progressive bills before Fallon declared his candidacy, during the campaign and will continue to do so now. Fallon’s claims otherwise are just attempts to justify his defeat and find a partial victory in a 22 point loss.
In terms of Iowa politics, it’s pretty clear Ed Fallon’s political career is over. Although Fallon had pockets of strength in North and West sides of Des Moines, Fallon still wasn’t able to win his former House District, HD 66 and was throughly trounced in the rural areas by margins not seen in a federal election in Iowa since Art Small was beat by Chuck Grassley. Despite Fallon’s much vaunted army of volunteers, his field efforts proved poor as turnout was low in his base precincts and he lost absentee ballots in Polk County by a nearly 3 to 1 margin (and by even more lopsided margins outside Polk County). In addition, Fallon is now bogged down by $35,000 in campaign debt, in addition to the $21,000 of debt still listed on his gubernatorial campaign account. If Fallon had won, or even lost narrowly, he might have had a strong claim to political credibility. Instead, he is firmly a niche candidate, one popular in Sherman Hill and among the Volvo drivers South of Grand but not anywhere else.
Boswell’s left flank is once again totally secure. Having easily fended off Fallon’s challenge, it seems clear he will be the Democratic nominee for Congress until he doesn’t want to be. However, Boswell, in the past few cycles, has proven to be much more vulnerable in off year elections than in Presidential years. While he should be able fend off Kim Schmett successfully, Boswell certainly be an NRCC target once again in 2010.
Polk County politics should also change too. The failure of the Fallon’s base to turn out shows the continued impotences of his limousine liberal base in local Democratic politics. The power in the Polk County Democratic Party will continue to reside on the southern banks of the Des Moines River for the near future.
In short, almost nothing has changed as a result of Fallon’s congressional run. Leonard Boswell is just as liberal as he was before and just as secure as the Democratic nominee as he was before. The balance of power has not changed in Polk County politics or on Capitol Hill. The only difference is that Ed Fallon has thrown his political career away in a quixotic challenge against a relatively progressive Democrat in a swing district and only has a debt of $35,000 to show for it.
June 12th, 2008
Stephen Colbert announced on his show last night that he was running for President, albeit only in his native state of South Carolina and as both a Democratic and Republican candidate. Colbert follows a long line of candidates mounted runs for the Presidency as a joke, ranging from Pat Paulson to Al Sharpton. However, unlike both of those candidates, Colbert may draw actual support. Colbert’s television show has millions of viewers every night, some of whom may support him for a lark. Although it is doubtful that Colbert’s support will be more than negligible, his run has to worry second tier candidate from both parties. While previously, candidates like Chris Dodd and Sam Brownback could run without consequences. The absolute worst that would happen to them was that they would finish behind a fringe weirdo like Dennis Kucinich or Tom Tancredo. It would be embarrassing, but both Kucinich and Tancredo are members of the United States Congress. Now respectable second tier candidates face the risk of a truly embarrassing result-finishing behind a comedian who is only pretending to be a fringe weirdo. Candidates who would normally limp through February 5th in hopes of a miracle might get scared off by the risk of humiliation.
In the meantime, Colbert now joins Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel as the only candidates yet to open a field office in Iowa.
October 17th, 2007
Cross posted at Iowa Independent
Jerry Falwell died two days ago. Will the Christian Right soon follow? That is certainly one of the questions being debated amidst the 2008 presidential contest. The front-runner for the GOP nomination, Rudy Giuliani, is pro-choice. But he has come under fire; recently for these views and his lead is shrinking nationwide and in Iowa.
Will the Christian Right try to stop Giuliani from winning the nomination? Could they if they tried? In this sense, perhaps the real legacy of Jerry Falwell won’t be known until the GOP has its nominee.
The cover story of the New Republic’s current issue is a lengthy (and intriguing) tribute to the idea that Giuliani can win the GOP nomination. Nestled within, however, is this paragraph:
Then, of course, there is the religious right. Though their power is on the wane, Christian conservatives are not going to allow Giuliani to have the nomination without a bitter fight… Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, put it this way: “If he wins, he’ll do so without social conservatives.” Then he added that a Republican presidential candidate can “no more win without conservative voters than a Democrat can without overwhelming support from blacks.”
Earlier today, James Dobson, chairman of Focus on the Family, and one of the leaders of today’s Christian conservative movement announced he would not support Giuliani if he were the Republican nominee:
Speaking as a private citizen and not on behalf of any organization or party, I cannot, and will not, vote for Rudy Giuliani in 2008. It is an irrevocable decision. If given a Hobson’s – Dobson’s? – choice between him and Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, I will either cast my ballot for an also-ran – or if worse comes to worst – not vote in a presidential election for the first time in my adult life.
On the other hand, Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition, urged social conservatives to give Giuliani a chance. According to the Hotline, Reed told viewers of the Christian Broadcasting Network that Giuliani “can still potentially win over pro-family voters” if he focuses on issues where they agree. Giuliani had campaigned for Reed last May when Reed was running in Georgia’s lieutenant governor primary; Reed went on to lose the election, but has maintained an affinity for Giuliani, apparently talking him up in January at the National Review Institute.
Here in Iowa, Giuliani has the support of former Congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle, who was conservative on social issues while in Congress. However, Nussle’s running mate, the more conservative Bob Vanderplaats, in addition to the very conservative Danny Carroll, has endorsed former Arkansas governor and pastor Mike Huckabee. Iowa Republicans–especially the grassroots–are well known conservatives. Two polls taken in 2000 showed that about 60 percent of likely GOP caucusers thought abortion should be illegal, according to the Des Moines Register. The Register reported in the same article that Giuliani hasn’t decided yet whether to participate in the Ames Straw Poll, a crucial test of Republican support in Iowa.
Whether Giuliani will win the Iowa caucuses or the nomination remains to be seen. But what is clear is that a Giuliani victory would be a crushing blow, perhaps a fitting epitaph, for the movement that Jerry Falwell helped create.
May 17th, 2007
As we dive deeper into the 21st century, the intersection of technology and politics becomes more and more apparent. If the last election featured Meetups and the emergence of the blogosphere, 2006 could be the year of social networking. According to the National Journal, both parties have created their own unique sites, and the number of politicians on MySpace and Facebook has skyrocketed as politicians try to harness the power of young people.
So who is harnessing this power? Facebook has the answer.
A tool called Election Pulse (login might be required) allows us to see which candidates Facebook users have endorsed. Here’e the rundown:
Gubernatorial race: Culver leads Nussle 52 to 42 percent.
CD 1: Braley leads Whalen 55 to 45 percent.
CD 2: Leach leads Loebsack 57 to 43 percent.
CD 3: Boswell leads Lamberti 74 to 26 percent.
CD 4: Latham leads Spencer 57 to 43 percent.
CD 5: King leads Schulte 68 to 27 percent.
So what does it all mean? Well, if you compare recent polls, it seems that Facebook users (basically college students) have similar opinions to the rest of the state’s residents — with the exception of the 3rd CD (and the gubernatorial race to a lesser extent which polls show is closer). Boswell is destroying Lamberti among Facebook users. Young people in the 3rd CD (including Grinnellians) and across the country have responded overwhemlingly to this farmer from Southern Iowa. If college students turn out for Boswell at the actual — rather than virtual — polls at this rate, Lamberti can kiss his chances of winning goodbye.
September 26th, 2006
