Search Results for ‘safe bet’
Iowans for Tax Relief recently announced that it was backing a primary candidate against incumbent Republican Clarence Hoffman in the Republican primary in State House District 55 (Ida County and parts of Crawford, Monona and Woodbury County). Hoffman is a fifth term Representative who crossed party lines to support the bill banning discrimination based on sexual orientation.
This is the second time Iowans for Tax Relief has backed a primary candidate against an incumbent Republican so far for the 2008 cycle. The first State Representative that they tried to primary, Walt Tomenga in House District 69 (Johnston and Grimes) has since announced his retirement. This has set up a vicious primary between ITR’s preferred candidate, Erik Helland, and former Iowa basketball player Al Lorenzen who is backed by moderate Republicans like former Governor Robert Ray.
However, while Iowans for Tax Relief is trying to find candidates who represent the true conservative nature of these districts, they’re neglecting that these are actually relatively moderate districts. Neither of these districts are Republican strongholds. In fact, Chet Culver received over 45% of the vote in both districts in 2006. Under normal circumstances, these seats would probably not be top Democratic priorities to pick up seats in the State House. But Iowans for Tax Relief drastically changes that.
With Iowans for Tax Relief’s continued effort to purge the Republican Party of anyone who slightly deviates from its extremist agenda, it’s safe to say that regardless of what happens on the day of the Primary Election, a lot of Republicans will be unhappy. This is especially true if Iowans for Tax Relief’s anointed candidate wins. An win by either or both Helland and Schultz would continue the trend of moderate Republicans like Robert Ray and Maggie Tinsman being isolated in their party and allow a great opportunity for a moderate Democratic candidate to appeal to these disenchanted Republicans and have a good chance at winning what would normally be a safe Republican seat.
Iowans for Tax Relief is certainly doing a good job of making the Republican Party more conservative. But at a terrible cost to any attempt by Republicans to build a majority. For a group that so admires Ronald Reagan, one would think that they would expand their reading in scriptures to include Reagan’s 11th commandment. Instead, they seem more concerned with obscure passages in Leviticus. Passages that Iowa Republicans will have many more years to study while they are in the minority.
October 15th, 2007
There has been some speculation about the connection between Tom Vilsack and Hillary Clinton. Perhaps some of the ’sack staff will move to the Clinton camp, and that would be a huge boost to Clinton if it happened. But while the staff might go to Clinton, it is way too early to assume that Vilsack’s supporters will automatically flow that direction, too. So the question remains: who will fill the Vilsack vacuum here? Who gains the most politically from the drop-out?
That’s a question that requires two answers, because, here in Iowa, we have gotten to know two different sides of Tom Vilsack. The first Tom Vilsack is the conservative DLC Democrat who was our governor for eight years. He was well-liked by moderates because of his political positions, and he was well-liked by many progressives because he was able to win. It is safe to say that the majority of Vilsack’s caucus support over the past few months has come from folks who got to know Vilsack as a moderate, and these folks are going to be looking for another moderate, probably with some executive experience.
The second Tom Vilsack is the McGovern-esque presidential candidate he had started to become over the past few months. He ran far to the left on the Iraq war, calling for immediate withdrawal and a cutoff of all funding in Congress, and he fashioned himself an expert on environmental issues in general (and renewable energy in particular). He was getting some traction on AirAmerica Radio and on certain liberal blogs (although clearly that wasn’t enough) and using “Courage to Create Change” as his tagline. In many ways, his campaign might have hoped to be 2008’s Howard Dean, another candidate who had a somewhat moderate record as a governor but who broke out as the antiwar left’s poster candidate during his campaign. (Vilsack was even using Blue State Digital, the team that handled Dean’s online strategy 2003-2004, for his web stuff.)
So these are two different voids. In Iowa, though, it is the moderate Vilsack who attracted most of the supporters. So the question is, which candidate matches up the best?
Ironically, Evan Bayh and Mark Warner would probably have gained the most. Unfortunately for them, they both dropped out months ago, perhaps because Vilsack was sucking up all of the moderate governor oxygen. (Yeah, in Bayh’s case, he has Senatorial experience, too, but it was his experience as Indiana Governor that he seemed to be emphasizing to distinguish himself.)
Without Bayh and Warner, it seems that the most likely to gain will be Bill Richardson, but he doesn’t draw as many obvious comparisons to Vilsack as Bayh and Warner would have. If Richardson doesn’t have an excellent Iowa field campaign soon, he will lose whatever advantage he might have gained, because folks who were comfortable settling on Vilsack this early could be looking for another candidate to settle on soon. He has a strong Iowa field director already, but that won’t be enough. Maybe this will encourage him to buy access to the state party’s VAN (the super-high-tech voter file), which is the mark of any serious Iowa Caucus campaign.
Either way, all of the non-”rock star” candidates must be breathing a sigh of relief today. Tomorrow, we’ll find out which one is “rock solid” enough to fill Vilsack’s two pairs of shoes.
February 23rd, 2007
It’s easy to forget stories like this with all that’s going on (especially on a day when we get linked from MyDD), but today is the last day of work for most of the remaining Maytag employees in Newton.
As a canvasser going door to door in Newton (among other cities) over the summer, I heard firsthand how frustrated folks were with what had happened. I think our fears that the shutdown would have far-reaching political implications have luckily proven false, but union strength in Newton was certainly a bit weaker this year, and it’s a safe bet that this had something to do with it.
From the Register, whose coverage of this story has generally been pretty good:
“I’m sad,” production worker Machell Phifer said this week. “I’m scared.”
The cuts will leave about 660 workers in the washer-dryer factory, where the work force was about 2,600 four years ago.
Also quoted is Ted Johnson, president of the UAW local:
The average Maytag production worker earns about $19 an hour. “Locally, there’s not anything comparable to what they have now” in wages and benefits, said Johnson.
December 22nd, 2006
The Boz drew a huge crowd to Main Lounge last night for a rally in anticipation of campus satellite voting this Monday. Students were not only treated to their svelte Congressman but got to see Eric Palmer, Mari Culver and Steve Mauro (Mike Mauro’s son).
Steve (he looks like his dad) went first and did a good job of stressing the importance of the oft-overlooked Secretary of State position. He said Mauro will push for more “safety, security and integrity” and will continue the great job Culver has done in increasing voter access. He assured the crowd that Mauro will fight for a paper trail in all of Iowa’s 99 counties. It’s good to know that the ball won’t be dropped when Chet moves on up.
Next, school favorite Eric Palmer spoke. He seemed really fired up and told us that his number one priority is increasing the minimum wage. Palmer has been getting better every time I see him—he’s always full of energy and nothing ever sounds canned. After tonight, I’ve no doubt that anyone who sees Palmer and Carroll next to one another will choose the former. Carroll is just too stiff and has that sleazy Nussle polish. If I didn’t know any better, I’d think Carroll had “gone Washington” too. Maybe he’s been rubbing elbows with Newt too often.
After Palmer was Mari Culver, Chet’s “brunette better half.” She stressed the need for continued progress in Iowa and Culver’s long commitment to increasing civic participation as Secretary of State. She noted that during Culver’s tenure, voting among 18-24 years olds had increased 50% (since 1996) and that Iowa moved from 11th to 6th in the country in voter turnout. She said that Culver had education as a top priority and would move to bring teacher salary to at least the national average and get tuition at the state’s universities under control. While Nussle may claim to focus on education, Mari pointed out that Jimmy boy voted through the largest cuts in student loan funding in history. Mari is quite good.
Following Mari was the main attraction—the Boz. He started by telling us that, although we hear it every few years, this really is the most important election “in my [his] lifetime.” He said that America was in danger of losing its promise and that he wanted to ensure that his grandchildren had the same opportunities that he did. He seemed so energized that he didn’t need to say a word to assuage doubts about his health, but he stressed that he felt better than he had in years, and that he was more prepared for Congress than he had ever been before. He said he wasn’t about to “go fishing” anytime soon—he wants to “die with my boots on.” He said that a Democratic majority could start to rebuild what has been lost during repuglican control these last few years—America, he said, needs to start being a “good neighbor” abroad and working with allies to accomplish common goals.
I’m glad Boswell stressed universal values and the ability to reach a common understanding in foreign policy—his message was far from the gloom and doom fated war of civilizations that the Bush clan drums up everyday. I think Boswell understands (and I’m projecting now) that for all the radicals in the Middle East there are good people who care about the same things that families in America do—to lose sight of that basic commonality is dangerous because it leads us to dwell on and thus increase our differences. It makes us pugnacious when diplomacy is called for, pugnacious when prudence is called for. Recognizing that diplomacy is possible doesn’t mean that we won’t fight radicals and keep America safe. I think Boswell understands, unlike the condescending fear mongers in the Bush administration, that Americans don’t have to be scared into strength or leadership.
October 4th, 2006
Those who went to the Harkin Steak Fry may have noticed that we had a crack team of bloggers there. In the following post, Ben and Alec reflect over the highs and lows of the event, which has made the news across the country.
Alec filed the following post:
The Harkin Steak fry gave me so much to sink my teeth into that I don’t know where to begin.
First, the basics—it didn’t rain and the steak was good. I hear the beans were a little cold. The lack of coleslaw was an enormous oversight. Someone said they liked the chicken but that it could have used a little salt. I didn’t try, nor hear anything about the bread. All things considered, it was a good day on the food front.
Oh, and there were speeches and stuff.
Ben, Freeda and I first stumbled by some of Evan Bayh’s people from the All America PAC. We asked one of them how long he had been with Bayh’s campaign, and he corrected us (with tongue firmly in cheek) that it was a political action committee. We were assured that Bayh would be around Iowa next year. Surprise surprise.
Soon after, we got a hold of Vilsack standing by the ice cream machine and taking pictures. Ben asked him whether the speech he gave for Grinnell commencement in the spring could be the basis of a possible stump speech (read: the 08′ question creatively reworded). The Governor said he had a lot on his mind and that he would continue to go around the country and tell people about the issues he thought were important. It was a snoozer for an answer, but I guess we couldn’t have expected the man to announce his candidacy to three college kids with press passes. Ah well. Then, Ben asked how congressional candidates should talk about Iraq before November. Vilsack said that, as he saw it, the mission in Iraq had changed from three years ago—with an elected government and a “standing army” the mission needed to shift to “building civil society.” He didn’t say it upfront, but he strongly hinted that he supported some sort of phased withdrawal. Could Vilsack be changing the position he offered in June to the DLC?
I caught a glimpse of the back of Obama’s head in the middle of a giggling crowd. I knew it was no use to try to get a word with him at that point. Mark that as the first failed chance to nab Obama.
Next, we found Mary and Chet Culver hanging out by the press. After shaking his hand and introducing ourselves (I’ve met Chet before, but I forgive him), we asked him what issues he planned to highlight before November in order to secure a majority of the undecided voters (the people who, if the latest DM poll is right, are going to decide this thing). He said that he would keep detailing his plan to “move Iowa forward” and said it was important for people to know that he was a coach and a teacher. In what seems to be a recurrent theme, he talked about these credentials as a private citizen far more than his time as Sec of State. Indeed, all day, the only person to dwell on Culver’s job as Secretary of State was Harkin, who said Chet had done more than anyone else in the country to make voting accessible to all. If Harkin can praise Culver’s time in elected office that profusely, why is it that Culver seems to stress the teacher/coach angle far more often?
I’d guess the emphasis on having been a teacher/coach is meant to contrast Chet’s private life with Nussle’s lack of non-government work (besides being a lawyer, which is a dirty word in the Republican party), but I’d like to see Chet talk more about his time as Sec of State.
In what goes down as the best moment of the day, Mary Culver told us she reads our blog and even recognized Hannah as a contributor. That is, of course, the quickest way to a blogger’s heart. Swoon. She said she was surprised Nussle had gone negative so early and speculated that low internal polling numbers motivated his turn to mudslinging.
As we made our way toward the stage we briefly got to speak with Jerome Armstrong and also shook hands with Mark Warner. Sadly, we didn’t get a chance to pose a question—the man seemed pretty intent on working the crowd. But something tells me we’ll be seeing a great deal more of him next year.
And then from Ben:
Shortly after, we watched Leonard Boswell take the stage. I know this isn’t news for many of you, but it was the first time I had seen the Boz since his successful surgery, and I just have to mention how good he looks. Slimmed down and full of energy, he looks at least 15 years younger. And he sounded confident.
He’s going to win this election and it won’t even be close.
After his speech, which I largely missed, Secretary of Ag. candidate Denise O’Brien spoke about the need for a “safe and healthy Iowa” to fairly large applause. Sec. of State candidate Mike Mauro spoke next and got the crowd riled up with an attack on Katherine Harris and the 2000 Florida Recount (The Dems are never going to forget that). Patty Judge, hopefully our next Lt. Governor, spoke afterwards. She’s not that polished but she gave the crowd some good lines. Biggest applause lines: education, abortion rights (”Choice matters in Iowa”), and perhaps surprisingly stem cell research. I’m not sure how potent that issue will actually be here in Iowa, but Claire McCaskill does seem to be using it with success in her Missouri senate race this year.
Something to think about…
Up next was Mark Warner, who seemed a bit out of place at this Iowa Dems event considering his presence wasn’t announced in advance, but was still greeted with fairly strong applause and a small standing O. He joked that some people still hadn’t recognized him at the event (maybe that’s why he was there — gotta get that name id up) and said, “It all starts in Iowa,” which I took to be a not-so-subtle reference to the 2008 Iowa caucuses. He ended with fists pumped and a “Let’s win” shout, which played well with the crowd.
Governor Vilsack spoke next, almost wistfully (”I’m ever so proud to be an Iowa Democrat. Ever so proud.”). He gave a sort of retrospective on the last eight years. He’s probably experiencing a bit of uncertainty right now, as he’ll soon be out of a job and though he’s eyeing the 2008 race, polls show him not even coming close to winning his own state’s caucuses… He spoke about the need for community and the positive role government can play in people’s lives. He talked about the fact that Americans were feeling anxious, especially after the Bush failures of Iraq and Katrina. It was actually one of the better speeches I’ve seen him give.
Culver spoke next and did a pretty good job of energizing the crowd.
Lots of Culver-Judge signs were waving. A choice quote: “I want to be the people’s governor. Jim Nussle wants to be the special interests ‘governor.” (Good, me likes the populist rhetoric.) He also said that “We’re ready to implement our plan when we get there.” I’m not sure how effective this “plan” rhetoric actually is. Most voters won’t read his plan, and it seems kind of vague, but maybe I’m wrong. He encouraged the crowd to take part in the three keys to victory: Volunteer (canvass, make calls), Visibility (put up signs, bumperstickers), and Vote (duh). This was good, I thought. Voters and activists want to feel engaged in the campaign. They want to feel part of something and the more they feel connected the more they will do. He promised the “Big Trifecta” would pull through in November.
Tom Harkin, the man of the hour, spoke next. Always gracious, he thanked the woman doing sign-language next to him on the stage. Seriously, this guy is full of heart. He said some nice words about Culver and then started ripping into the Republicans. He said the GOP was in “full fear-mongering mode” and they were trying to do anything to distract voters from “Bush’s war.” “There’s no virtue in staying the course if the course you’re on is headed over the cliff,” he said. “There’s no virtue in being strong and wrong.” He also threw some jabs at Nussle, saying that “Bush and Nussle are attached at the hip.”
Harkin’s smart: Bush is an anchor for every GOP candidate this year — from dog-catcher to senator.
Obamarama spoke next and boy did he get an applause. He complimented Iowa and said, “I’m going to have to come again.” Is he running in ‘08? More hints that he is. He gave a strong speech and the crowd obviously loved it. He recalled an anecdote where he met Marjorie Lewis, a 105-year-old black woman while he was running for the Senate. He then proceeded to tell America’s story through her life. It was an excellent rhetorical device and the speech really tugged at your Democratic and progressive heartstrings. He said that whenever he is cynical about politics he thinks of Marjorie Lewis and what she’s seen. It was a long speech, but his eloquent delivery seemed to keep the crowd captivated. I overheard one grandmotherly lady behind me remark that “Edwards-Obama would be a great ticket.” Interesting…
Needless to say he got a standing O at the end (actually he received several throughout the speech). Harkin thanked everyone for coming and that was it. We stayed around for a bit longer after the speeches, hoping to get a chance to interview Obama, Harkin, etc, which we were promised by the Harkin people but there was such a long line of well-wishers and star-struck fans that we figured it wasn’t worth it to wait around. So we packed up the car and headed home, scheming all the way home over who we’d like to run in 2008.
September 18th, 2006
Gubernatorial candidate Ed Fallon stopped by Grinnell for lunch today. At least 30 students attended. Fallon began by talking with students informally at each table, and, afterwards, gave a speech and answered questions from the group. There’s an approximation of what happened (we have the event’s audio, and we’ll probably drop some clips into our podcast, coming soon) after the jump.
Ed Fallon began his speech with his clean elections proposal. He names Maine and Arizona as the two states with the best clean elections systems in the country. He quotes a Maine state legislator saying that universal health care can only happen after a clean elections law, because right now special interests control too much. He says often the special interest money goes to Republicans, but he takes a jab at Patty Judge’s money, too.
He says that the primary is the place to make sure you vote for candidates whom you really believe in.
He says that he’s not wealthy, unlike other people who run for public office, and that he lived without any health insurance for a long time. He talks about universal health care again. He criticizes sales tax exemptions for hospital purchases and not for everyday consumers. He says he tries to change things, but, although most legislators agree with him, they all get strongarmed by party leadership who are in the pockets of special interests. As governor, he could be on the same playing field as special interests, which would give him the opportunity to change things.
He talks about how his campaign is going: 1200 volunteers, over 120 house parties, organization in 73 of Iowa’s 99 counties.
Finally, he criticizes cuts in education in Iowa. He wants to end the cuts in the Iowa tuition grant. He says that Iowa’s education system was one of the best in the country, but it’s struggling because of tax cuts for the rich. We gave $16 million to Maytag, and the outgoing CEO of Maytag got a $19 million bonus.
Notes from the Q&A:
On how Ed will get universal health care passed in Iowa’s political climate:
“I believe that if people are fired up about something, the legislature will get it done. Because legislators respond to three things: a lot of them really want to do the right thing. A lot of them feel bullied into doing the wrong thing because of the thread of not getting reelected — if they offend one of their big funders. But most importantly — more important than anything — is the voter. People in their district who feel strongly about an issue. If everybody in their district is talking about health care, and they make it clear that they want to see a universal health care system pass, that lawmaker is going to have to support that or risk losing in the next election. So what I can do as governor is create a climate where people are talking about the issue. Where there’s an expectation that something’s gonna happen. I don’t care if it’s a Republican or Democratic legislature. I’d rather it be a Democratic legislature, but again it doesn’t have to be to get it done. It doesn’t have to be, but we could get a better plan if we have a Democratic legislature.”
On intelligent design:
“I don’t think intelligent design is very intelligent. It’s funny the euphemisms they come up for things, isn’t it? I mean, we used to call it creationism. It’s a back-door way of trying to work religion into the public school curriculum, and that bothers me. And, you know, I’m a religion major; I value my faith quite deeply. But I also value the principle of separation of church and state. And it just seems to me it’s a slippery way of trying to get it into the back door.”
He went on to give a pretty scholarly account of creation stories in Genesis.
On criminal justice system:
“Our criminal justice system is really out of whack. It’s really focused on incarceration. There has been a trend in the legislature to create longer and longer sentences in response to concerns about public safety. A particular crime happens and the response is to enact a new penalty for it.”
He went on to give examples of this, including our 2,000 foot rule for sex offenders, which Fallon says makes us looks bad because of how many problems have been exposed about it. He was the only no vote on the law. He favors a restorative justice approach, or “community based corrections.”
“It involves trying to work with community. I’m really concerned that the current process is not really fair to the victims and the victims’ families as well.”
On alternative energy:
“We have the capacity in Iowa to be energy independent… We can be energy independent in 10 years… The challenge in my mind is making sure the energy industry we create is locally controlled. Right now, again it’s related back to campaign finance reform, you’ve got big companies … that know how to play the game financially.”
Takes a jab at Culver, whose top donor is an energy company from another state.
On the Iowa rainforest:
“It’s kind of ironic that we’re going to build a rainforest in Iowa even as we import these low-cut burgers at McDonalds that involve destruction of the rainforest in Central and South America… I’ve never supported the rainforest… I’d like to see us do more for prairie restoration.”
On immigration:
He’s a welcoming person. He spoke (in Spanish) at the big protest in Des Moines.
April 22nd, 2006
Taking advantage of the Easter holiday, Gov. Vilsack chose to ride out the tornados (hope everyone out there is safe and sound) by taking a trip out to Iraq. Is this trip a reflection of Vilsack’s desire to keep in touch with Iowans serving abroad, or is it the continuation of his efforts to build up a cache of international credentials? Does our man in Des Moines really want a crack at the White House? If so, he’d better start flexing some fundraising muscle, as PAC money reports show that this year Vilsack has only raked in $400,600, compared with a cool $6 million for Hillary.
The Iowa legislature resumes Tuesday, hoping to hammer out what remains on the budget. Among the notables is haggling over proposed pay raises for teachers, as the Register reports that Iowa now ranks only 41st in teacher pay grade. Aren’t our schools supposed to be a centerpiece? Gov. Vilsack has also earmarked close to $15 million to allow every 4 year-old in Iowa the chance to go to preschool.
Finally, for those keeping up on the immigration debate, here’s an article showing the effects that restricting migrant labor would have on Iowa’s agriculture. If Iowa is already experiencing labor shortages, what’s it going to take to get Steve King to stop running his mouth?
And, if you haven’t seen it: why everyone should love Al Gore. (you need quicktime to watch).
April 17th, 2006
Well, this issue isn’t new (blogs have discussed it in the past, and Fallon mentioned it when he came to Grinnell last week), but the New York Times has an article today about the flaws in Iowa’s “can’t live within 2,000 feet of a school” law for sex offenders convicted of crimes involving children:
While some of the Iowa’s largest cities, like Des Moines, have become virtually off limits for those convicted of sex crimes involving children, the new rules have pushed many to live in groups away from their families, in places like the Ced-Rel, or the Red Carpet Inn in nearby Bouton, where nine offenders rent rooms.
Michele Costigan, whose driveway is right across Highway 30 from the Ced-Rel in this rural stretch just outside Cedar Rapids, said she had stopped leaving any of her four children at home alone, had told them to dial 911 if anyone they did not recognize pulled into the family driveway, and was considering moving.
“If the point of his law was to make us safer, we are not,” Ms. Costigan said.
Even more worrisome to law enforcement officials in Iowa, the restrictions appear to be leading some offenders to slip out of sight.
Of the more than 6,000 people on Iowa’s registry of sex offenders, 400 are now listed as “whereabouts unconfirmed” or living in “non-structure locations” (like tents, parking lots or rest areas). Last summer, the number was 140.
But a UPI piece (which I’m linking to through DailyIndia.com just because the fact that we get so much coverage in India is funny) has this to say:
… [S]tudies by the Colorado Department of Public Safety and the Minnesota Department of Corrections found no correlation between a predator and their living close to children.
March 15th, 2006
