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In an interview with a progressive blog today, Ed Fallon claimed, “We’re doing really well, our own internal polling shows us up.” It’s not a surprise for Fallon to make a claim when the Boswell campaign released its own internal from Anzalone Lizst, the firm that polled for new Democratic Congressmen Don Cazayoux and Travis Childers, that had Boswell receiving 65% of the vote.
This jibes with the KCCI poll that had Boswell winning by a two to one margin. However, Fallon’s campaign finance reports, which show him having only $28,000 on hand the day before he had to meet payroll, does not show him spending any money on pollsters. (Nor does it show him spending on money on television, radio, mail, newspaper advertisements or any other form of paid media) So if Ed Fallon hasn’t hired a pollster and can’t afford to pay one, why does he claim he has internal polling, let alone internal polling that seems at odds with all the other information about this race?
Our guess is that Ed Fallon probably took a survey, not a poll. A survey is unscientific and involves asking a bunch of people without dealing with complicated things like sample size or filtering likely voters. This means that Ed Fallon may actually be ahead according to his “polling”, provided, of course, that a third of the electorate are vegetarians from Sherman Hill and everyone who votes outside Polk County is a member of CCI. Then again, this blog may be given Fallon too much credit for assuming that he merely mistook the difference between a survey and a poll. (Which is covered the second week of Statistics 101).
Fallon has a history of lying and of sleazy behavior. He may have just made up his “internal polling” entirely, which would be a good deal for Fallon. After all, the less he spends on internal polling, the more money he can pay himself.
May 22nd, 2008
It is increasingly unlikely that Ed Fallon will win the Third District Primary as his campaign is both broke and languishing far behind Leonard Boswell in the polls. The question now arises what will professional candidate Ed Fallon run for next? Fallon is a professional candidate at this point (and, thanks to the still open Fallon Loophole, can still make a good living running for office). There are several possibilities for Fallon. The first is running for Mayor of Des Moines against Frank Cownie in 2011. Cownie is a leading environmentalist, which makes him a prime target for Fallon who actively worked to defeat Al Gore in 2000. However, that election is three years away and the Mayor of Des Moines only makes $31,500 a year. Fallon would be much better served continuing his I’M For Iowa gig rather embarking so soon on a campaign for a weak office so far in the future.
Another possibility is Polk County Supervisor. This job pays $93,000, which is more than Ed Fallon has ever lapped up from the public trough in a single year so far. However, Fallon lives in the area represented by John Mauro. Although Mauro’s reputation has been tainted by association with CIETC, Fallon’s ethical lapses in regards for IM for Iowa and his attempts to cover up that misconduct make Mauro look like the second coming of Abraham Lincoln. While Fallon has never showed any fear of entering in races he’s likely to lose, it seems unlikely he’d want to tangle with La Macchina in a district that is almost entirely on the South Side. This is especially true when Fallon is probably the only candidate who Christine Hensley would support a Mauro over.
Fallon could also run for State Senate against Jack Hatch in 2010. Although Hatch endorsed Boswell, he was one of two State Senators to vote against closing the Fallon Loophole and unlike most other elected Democrats in Polk County, he has not been vehemently opposed to Fallon and has even attended a Fallon event or two as a polite observer. However, in Fallon’s political career, loyalty has not been one of Fallon’s most notable traits. He endorsed Nader in 2000, considered running as a third party candidate against Chet Culver in 2006 and refused a pledge to support all Democrats on the ticket in 2002. (One wonders whether Fallon was more conflicted about supporting Tom Harkin or Tom Vilsack.) In that light, stabbing Jack Hatch in the back seems like small potatoes. However, while Hatch’s district includes many places Fallon has represented in the past, a State Senator only makes about $30,000 a year and as a state candidate, Fallon could lose income in the remaining interval if the Legislature actually closes the Fallon Loophole and keeps Fallon from paying himself from campaign contributions. But there is one office Ed Fallon could run for where he would never have to worry about the Iowa Legislature cutting into his earnings.
Chuck Grassley is up for Senate in 2010 and Fallon would make an admirable Democratic nominee. Aside from giving Fallon the chance to earn nearly $170,000, he could pay himself a salary without worrying about any legislation from Rick Olson to cut off the gravy train. It would also be the one office where Fallon would not have to primary an incumbent and would have a chance to receiving the backing of the entire Democratic establishment as Ed Fallon possesses a very rare skill that is essential to running against Grassley. After all, what politician in Iowa has more experience and talent at turning receiving only 25% of the vote into a victory?
No matter what office Ed Fallon runs for in the future, there is one thing for certain. Professional political candidate Ed Fallon will be running for office again.
May 5th, 2008
Despite being a city slicker from Sherman Hill, Ed Fallon displayed his agricultural expertise last week when he reaped what he sowed with Al Gore’s endorsement of Leonard Boswell. To paraphrase what Fallon said about the former Vice President, Gore can’t support Fallon, won’t support Fallon and thinks Democratic primary voters in the 3rd District shouldn’t support Fallon either. Fallon notoriously betrayed the Democratic Party and stabbed Gore in the back and is now facing the consequences of his actions. This endorsement came the same day as a KCCI poll came out that showed Boswell thumping Fallon by nearly 25 points. Even if every undecided voter broke for Fallon, Boswell would still win 52-48. In addition, national publications such as the Hotline and Real Clear Politics are counting Fallon out.
Iowa named a county after Nathaniel Greene, a Revolutionary War General who presided over the trial and execution of John Andre, Benedict Arnold’s accomplice. It’s doubtful though whether the state will grant any such honor to Leonard Boswell when he presides over the death knell of a modern day Benedict Arnold’s political career on June 3rd but Boswell will be deserving of it.
April 28th, 2008
Former Speaker Pro Tem Danny Carroll is running for Iowa House of Representatives again. Carroll, once labeled a rising star in Republican circle was decisively trounced by State Rep Eric Palmer in 2006. This was despite Carroll running a dirty campaign that included push polls and libelous mailings. Carroll was also discredited when it was revealed that he had taken part in a scheme to defraud an elderly widow.
Although Carroll may have some added credibility due to his support of Mike Huckabee in the Iowa Caucuses, it still doesn’t change the fact that he’s a sleazeball and a swindler. If the best candidate the Republicans find for any race down to dogcatcher is someone with as little moral character as Danny Carroll, it shows the desperate straits that the GOP is now in.
March 12th, 2008
According to a giant nationwide poll conducted by Survey USA, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would beat John McCain in a general election but only Obama would win Iowa. The poll consisted of separate statewide polls that gave Obama a win based on a strong performance west of the Mississippi River while Clinton’s win was based on strength in winning big states like Pennsylvania and Florida despite losing some of the smaller states that the poll thought Obama could win.
However, in Iowa, the poll shows Obama trouncing McCain by 50-41 while Clinton loses 46-41. Obama outperforms Clinton in almost every category in Iowa, save Hispanic voters, and even wins traditionally Republican Northwest Iowa. In fact, the poll shows Obama not just winning Northwest Iowa but winning North Dakota and turning Iowa’s western neighbors, South Dakota and Nebraska into swing states.
Now, this is just a poll taken 8 months before a general election and there still is a lot of campaigning to be done and any general election numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. But what the poll clearly shows is that Barack Obama has a distinct strength in the Great Plains, putting states into play for the Democrats that, with the exception of 1964, have been consistently Republican since the end of the New Deal. And this Great Plains region includes Western Iowa.
If this poll holds up, it seems clear that with Barack Obama and Tom Harkin on the ticket, Iowa Democrats have the potential to have an better year than 2006 and stand a decent chance at picking up the 4th Congressional District seat. This is not to say that Hillary as the nominee would be a disaster. But, in Iowa, the numbers seem to indicate that Obama has the best coattails for congressional and legislative candidates and the chance to even realign Iowa politics by weakening the Republican hold on Western Iowa.
March 6th, 2008
Polly Granzow, the Republican State Representative from House District 44, comprising Hardin County and most of Marshall County outside of Marshalltown, is not running for re-election in 2008. This combined with Larry McKibben’s decision not to seek re-election in the Senate District that includes all of Marshall and Hardin Counties, puts local Republicans in a bind as Century for the Common Iowan notes. However, it puts the State Republican Party into even bigger bind.
So far, nine Republican incumbents in the State House are not running for re-election according to Iowa Independent. This includes every Republican but one in Polk County as well as Democratic leaning seats in Mason City and Decorah that are currently held by Bill Schickel and Chuck Gipp respectively. Granzow only won by 300 votes in 2006 and her district should be very competitive as an open seat in 2008.
But this underlies the fact that while Iowa Republicans are citing the House as one of their few bright spots in 2008. When the only two Democratic open seats are incumbents running for State Senate, it’s a pretty dubious bright spot. GOP prospects in the State House may seem brighter than those against Tom Harkin or in the State Senate. But that’s merely contrasting a good chance of losing by a landslide to almost certainly getting blown out. Unless something unexpected happens nationally or in state politics (like a political scandal or a Fallon win in the 3rd District primary) it seems pretty clear that calling the Iowa House a bright spot is only a relative term for Iowa Republicans.
February 25th, 2008
Although Iowa Progress has reported optimistically on this in the past, it seems that a workplace smoking ban is finally making progress in the state legislature. Debate is set for next week on a bill that would ban smoking from most workplaces. While the bill is imperfect and contains an exemption for casinos, it still offers a positive step towards improving the health of many Iowans. As this study by the American Lung Association shows, workplace smoking bans are not only good for public health but they’re good for business. In fact, it is estimated that secondhand smoke in the workplace costs Americans $10 billion a year.
Not only that, a recent Des Moines Register poll found that 75% of Iowans supported a workplace smoking ban. So why would anyone oppose a bill that’s popular, good for public health and good for business? It’s hard to say.
One strong opponent of a workplace smoking ban is House Minority Leader Christopher Rants. Rants frames his opposition in concern to the fact that it might deter smokers from going to bars and thus hurting local bar owners. Although a cynic might argue that Rants might be influenced by the fact he’s taken over $6,000 in donations from Big Tobacco over the past few years, those who appreciate Rants’ firm sense of personal morality know that his stand against public opinion, public health and Iowa business is solely in defense of the corner bar and the small town tavern and has nothing to do with any desire to profit from the largess of Philip Morris and other major tobacco companies.
However, despite Rants’ “principled” opposition, there’s still a strong chance that a workplace smoking ban will still happen in Iowa this year.
February 14th, 2008
Ed Fallon was a Ralph Nader supporter in 2000. He described Al Gore as “to the right of Bill Clinton” and said that “I can’t, I won’t and you shouldn’t [vote for Al Gore] either.”
So what was the platform of the far-right wing, DLC Democrat that Ed Fallon refused to support?
In Gore’s acceptance speech, he stated that “campaign finance reform will be the very first bill that I send to the United States Congress,” that “free trade…must be fair trade” and reaffirmed his commitment to a federal law banning discrimination based on sexual orientation.
In fact, in that very same speech, Gore reiterated the basic theme of his campaign-representing the people versus the powerful, which Gore defined as “big tobacco, big oil, the big polluters, the pharmaceutical companies, the HMOs”. It is a theme that Ed Fallon even supported in 2008 when he endorsed John Edwards, whose candidacy was based on the idea that “powerful, well-financed interests [were] taking over this democracy, and taking it away from regular Americans.”
So the question is what was so right-wing about Al Gore crusading for campaign finance reform, fair trade and gay rights in 2000 that Ed Fallon couldn’t support him? Instead, Fallon supported a candidate and party that advocated ending the use of all pesticides and most fertilizers and “an end to government price supports” for agriculture, wanted to allow unemployed Americans collect government benefits without any time limit or restrictions and believed African Americans should be able to form their own separate nation on American soil. It’s a platform that veers from policies that are just bad to those that are outright wacky.
When Ed Fallon would rather support the candidacy of someone who runs on a platform that African Americans have a right to secede from the United States and form their own nation on American soil over a candidate who is committed to passing campaign finance reform, something is wrong. Ed Fallon’s support of Ralph Nader and the Green Party over Al Gore is not just a sign of bad judgment but it’s a sign of someone who has the wrong priorities for Iowa, for America and for Liberalism and Progressivism as well.
January 30th, 2008
Rudy Giuliani is running a new advertisement in New Hampshire that the campiagn has named “Ready” and is proudly touting on its websites. The ad, which uses a voiceover fresh out of a “300″ preview, shows images of angry crowds burning flags, shouting in other languages, and protesting. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is suggested to be a madman, Bhutto represents democracy under attack, and an explosion rocks a busy intersection. To top it off, an image of Bin Laden fades into the silhouette of the World Trade Center rubble.
This is supposed to scare you into voting for Rudy. The ad claims that he is tested and ready. But it gives no reasons as to why he is ready. It also neglects to mention that part of the budget to defend the people of New York went to having police officers walk his mistress’s dog. There is a problem with priorities here that the American people may not (and if Iowa was any evidence, do not) like.
The ad also mentions nothing about why Rudy would be the best candidate for fighting terrorism. The only reason this blogger can imagine is that his reckless foreign policies will cause more terrorism, leading to more time spent fighting terrorism.
The politics of fear won in 2002 and 2004 (when Dean ran with a more hopeful message), and the Republicans benefited from it. But if the success of Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama are any indication, hope will be the winning message in 2008. Could we see an end to the politics of fear? Probably not entirely, but polls are showing the Republican national security advantage over Democrats is going away. Voting through fear may loose traction to hope and vision this cycle.
January 6th, 2008
Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucuses tonight by a significant margin boosted by strong support from registered Independents and first time caucusgoers. However, the most striking example of this was in Eldridge, Iowa. The Obama precinct captain there was 2006 Independent Congressional candidate James Hill. Hill ran with his party affiliation as Pirate and garnered 2201 votes. This exemplifies the lead shown by Obama among self described Independents. Unfortunately though, none of the polls asked prospective caucusgoers if they self-identified as pirates.
January 3rd, 2008
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