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Some of the posts on this blog got to be a bit overly negative towards Ed Fallon during the primary. In particular, a post that compared Fallon to Benedict Arnold for his endorsement of Ralph Nader in 2000. In retrospect, Fallon clearly learned his lesson from his endorsement of Ralph Nader in 2000 and accepted his defeat in last week’s primary.
The same however cannot be said of William Meyers. William Meyers is an ex-Marine who has been using his government disability pay to allow himself to be a full time candidate for Congress over the past year. Meyers, as an outsider who didn’t raise any money, finished third in a four-way primary to be the Democratic nominee in the 4th District against Tom Latham. Meyers, like most candidates who receive 11% of the vote, came to the obvious conclusion about why 89% of voters rejected him. He was robbed.
Meyers claims that he was shut out of certain central committees by biased county chairs and this inability to meet central committee members in a handful of counties robbed him of the 7,986 votes that he needed to defeat the winner, Becky Greenwald. Meyers has never stated how he was “denied access.” The county central committee membership is public information and as far as Iowa Progress knows, no County Central Committee employs bouncers to keep out unwanted guests from meetings.
It seems Meyers is just a sore loser looking for someone to blame for his own failings. However, we’re still reserving final judgment. After all, it’s entirely possible that large, muscular men kept Meyers from attending the Kossuth County Central Committee. But we don’t think its likely
June 10th, 2008
In an interview with The Hill, Tom Harkin made his suggestion for who the Democratic nominee for the Vice Presidency should be. Harkin suggested a well-known liberal from the Northeast. Not Chuck Schumer or Chris Dodd but, instead, Jon Stewart. Harkin thought the Daily Show host was the best fit for the number two spot on the ticket. When asked if he would consider being Vice President himself, Harkin said, “No, I’d have Jon Stewart stand in for me. Jon Stewart. That’s my guy.” Harkin is the first super delegate to come out in support of Stewart. However, so far, Stewart has not collected the endorsement of a single pledged delegate.
Chuck Grassley was also asked if he was interested in being the Vice Presidential nominee of his party. Grassley’s response was “I’m too old to be vice president. But I am young enough to be reelected to the Senate.” That seems to be a pretty clear declaration again that Grassley is running in 2010. And when he does run, Iowa Progress has found the perfect opponent for him.
May 17th, 2008
Despite being a city slicker from Sherman Hill, Ed Fallon displayed his agricultural expertise last week when he reaped what he sowed with Al Gore’s endorsement of Leonard Boswell. To paraphrase what Fallon said about the former Vice President, Gore can’t support Fallon, won’t support Fallon and thinks Democratic primary voters in the 3rd District shouldn’t support Fallon either. Fallon notoriously betrayed the Democratic Party and stabbed Gore in the back and is now facing the consequences of his actions. This endorsement came the same day as a KCCI poll came out that showed Boswell thumping Fallon by nearly 25 points. Even if every undecided voter broke for Fallon, Boswell would still win 52-48. In addition, national publications such as the Hotline and Real Clear Politics are counting Fallon out.
Iowa named a county after Nathaniel Greene, a Revolutionary War General who presided over the trial and execution of John Andre, Benedict Arnold’s accomplice. It’s doubtful though whether the state will grant any such honor to Leonard Boswell when he presides over the death knell of a modern day Benedict Arnold’s political career on June 3rd but Boswell will be deserving of it.
April 28th, 2008
The Washington Post is linking former Iowa congressman Jim Leach to Unity 08, a bi-partisan group that’s exploring running a centrist third party bid for the Presidency in 2008. Speculation is that the group will select New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg as its nominee, both for his bipartisan appeal (as an Independent who has previously been both a Democrat and a Republican) and for his multi-billion dollar fortune.
If Leach backs a Bloomberg candidacy, this would have big repercussions in 2008 in Iowa. Leach, despite his defeat in 2006, was well-liked even by most Democrats who voted against him. His support would be big for Bloomberg in Iowa and help make Bloomberg a serious player in the state. Leach has a strong geographic base in Iowa and is perhaps the last of the Robert Ray moderate Republicans in the state. Leach’s endorsement, particularly if a conservative Republican is the nominee, would encourage a lot of moderate Republicans to support Bloomberg. Leach would also carry over some Democrats as well. (Some Democrats went so far as to print Harkin-Leach bumper stickers in 2002).
While Bloomberg probably wouldn’t win Iowa, Leach’s support would help significantly. It also would have a major impact on the Presidential race. Leach’s support would draw a lot of moderate Republicans to Bloomberg, helping insure a Democratic victory in Iowa. If this happens, it would have a major downballot effects. If the Republican Presidential nominee gives up in Iowa due to Bloomberg that, combined with Tom Harkin on the Democratic ticket, could devastate Republicans running for the State Legislature and in county races. It could lead to even bigger Democratic majorities in Des Moines and help make Tom Latham vulnerable.
Although Bloomberg’s candidacy would be big for Democrats in Iowa, unfortunately, it would hurt in other states that are typically Democratic bastions like New York and New Jersey. But that’s a matter for New Jersey blogs to worry about.
December 30th, 2007
After Sam Brownback dropped out last week, speculation immediately started as to which candidate the prominent social conservative would support. It was generally assumed that Brownback would lend his endorsement to a candidate shared his socially conservative views. However, as the Politico reports, Rudy Giuliani, who is pro-choice and pro gay rights, has been courting Brownback. While Brownback is not giving it up on the first date, he said he was “much more comfortable” with Giuliani’s position on abortion and gave Giuliani a chaste kiss on the cheek, describing him as a “wonderful candidate.”
If Giuliani gets the Republican nomination, he will need to have a prominent social conservative on the ticket to keep the right wing of the Republican Party happy. Prominent religious fundamentalists and extremists like James Dobson have declared that they would never vote for Giuliani, although at this stage, it’s just posturing. Giuliani would to do everything he could to appease them and have a Vice Presidential nominee would perform that task. It would be a role that Brownback would be perfectly suited for. That is why Brownback is meeting with Giuliani and making such a public display of it. Giuliani is the only candidate who needs Brownback and would put him on the ticket. (After all, Kansas isn’t a swing state). Brownback is a failed Presidential candidate who knows what he wants and is not afraid to go get it.
October 26th, 2007
Chris Dodd’s campaign announced that it had received the endorsement of State Rep Ray Zirkelbach today. Zirkelbach served two years in Iraq with the National Guard (and is the second Iraq veteran in the Iowa Legislature to make an endorsement in two days.) However, while Dodd’s campaign found an endorsement by an influential young Democrat in North East Iowa to be valuable in and of itself. It has added value, it’s one of the few Iowa endorsements that Dodd has received by a non-firefighter.
Dodd has been endorsed nationally by the International Association of Firefighters (or IAFF), which provided his only real major boost of the campaign. The only two Iowa legislators who endorsed Dodd previously, State Senators Jeff Danielson and Tom Hancock were firefighters and, of Dodd’s statewide leadership team that was announced this summer, a third of its members were affiliated with the IAFF. Dodd had IAFF-affiliated county chairs in seven of the ten counties that make up half of the caucus delegates and in four of the top five counties.
While Zirkelbach isn’t a firefighter, (he works at the prison at Anamosa), it’s still of concern for Dodd that his campaign’s leadership still has not expanded very far beyond its base labor support and that an endorsement by a non-firefighter is of note. With competition increasingly fierce even among the “second tier” candidates, Dodd is not going to get very far on caucus night if most of his supporters are just firefighters loyal to their International.
October 12th, 2007
Iowa State Representative McKinley Bailey announced his endorsement of Joe Biden today. Bailey is a first term State Representative and was widely courted by Presidential campaigns because of his service in Iraq in the 82nd Airborne Division. Biden has picked up endorsements from a number of Iowa legislators as part of his campaign’s increased focus on the caucuses. Bailey is also a member of a prominent political family in Hamilton County. However, his father, Hamilton County Supervisor Doug Bailey has not just endorsed Obama, but is a member of Obama’s statewide leadership team.
It’s also interesting to note that Hillary Clinton announced her retirement savings plan in the Bailey family’s hometown of Webster City. It seems the Clinton campaign may be using the split between father and son to scoop up support in North Central Iowa.
However, regardless of what the Clinton campaign does, it appears that Thanksgiving and Christmas may be interesting in the Bailey family. While many Iowa families may go to the caucus together, it does necessarily mean that they support the same candidate when they get to their caucus location.
October 11th, 2007
As Chris Cilizza reports, Joe Biden is staking his entire campaign on a strong performance in Iowa. He has moved almost his entire national staff into Iowa in hopes of a strong performance in the caucuses. Biden seems to hope that this increased focus, combined with support from many Iowa legislators (including his recent endorsement by Iowa House Speaker Pro Tem Polly Bukta). His strategy, as reported by Marc Ambinder seems solid, based on having surrogates hit smaller towns with a particular focus on the blue collar Democratic counties along the Mississippi River. However, there is one inherent flaw. Ambinder notes that Biden has “nine field offices and 23 full-time staffers” which is puny compared to the number of staffers and field offices that Obama, Edwards and Clinton have. In fact, even Chris Dodd has 59 full-time staffers on the ground in Iowa right now.
Not only does Biden have very few staffers, they aren’t very experienced either. According to this roster of Biden field staff. Six out of his 14 field staffers (all of whom are titled Regional Field Directors) have never worked on a campaign before. And of those who have worked on a campaign, most have worked on campaigns for Chicago alderman or Colorado Board of Education, not for major statewide or federal offices. The ground game is crucial in the Iowa Caucuses and with the limited field program that he has, Biden is in trouble. Unless Biden is able to fully tap into the organizations of the legislators to endorse him, he will not do well in Iowa and get one of the proverbial “three tickets out of Iowa” that go to the top three finishers in the caucuses. Unless things change, Biden’s hoped for third place finish will be just like Joe Lieberman’s “third place finish” when he went all out in New Hampshire in 2004. A third place finish that actually means he finished fifth.
September 26th, 2007
I had intended to liveblog this event but got stuck in an overflow room with no option of standing in the back. I’m not sure how many updates I’ll be posting as this event starts in a few minutes…
…that situation has been remedied. Read on for liveblogging. Sorry for typos, etc., but this is all being typed on a Blackberry pseudo-keyboard.
State rep Mark Smith is on now talking about the successes Dems have had in Iowa and about history. He compares Obama to Abraham Lincoln. Then he makes sure to note that he hasn’t endorsed anyone yet and that it’s too early for him to make an endorsement.
Obama is on now. He thanks Mark Smith and volunteers who helped with the event. He says Iowa and Illinois are a lot alike, except Illinois has Chicago.
…He’s going over his bio and tieing that in to the purpose of politics…
Now he’s on to the issues. Goes down list of problems we face; gets applause at the end when he says he was against the war from the beginning. Casts himself as Washington outsider and gets more applause. It sounds like he hasn’t quite memorized his stump speech yet, because it has been a little choppy.
Says we can use ethanol just like Brazil. Says using incentives can make capitalism earth-friendly.
Mentions his senate bill on Iraq withdrawal and gets applause again. Says diplomacy is the answer and alludes to Marshall plan.
He is finishing his speech by talking about the importance of us getting involved and finally mentions briefly that he had a lot of small donors during the last quarter
Now questions…
First questionis on universal health care. Obama talks about preventative health care as part of the solution. He talks about obesity as an example of the problem, but he sounded a little critical of fat people - oops.
This answer is taking too long considering everyone already knows his position as it has been defined. .
Next question is from a peace activist on Israel and Palestine. Obama starts tip toeing…
Religious conflict between shia and sunni predates Israel, he says, dodging the original question.
Obama does believe that Israel-Palestine is serving to perpetuate problems in the reason.
He calls for two-state solution. Palestinians must recognize Israel’s right to exist and stop terrorism. US must be a part of negotiations. My pro-Israel friend just said Obamas answer won his vote.
Sandy shaver from UAW/Maytag asks about outsourcing. It turns out Barack Obama is against it.
Solution one is stop giving tax benefits for outsourcing.
Solution two is improving infrastructure like broadband.
Solution three is spending a lot of money on green technology (on the scale of the Manhattan project, he says).
Finally Obama says he supports both free trade and fair trade. My Econ major friends roll their eyes a but but it sounds good to me
That was all his answer to the outsourcing question.
Next question from a teacher is whether he will consult teachers on his education plans. He says his sister is a teacher (and yes, he will).
Everyone has to work to improve education: parents, students, community, etc.
Obama says he does support some of NCLB’s goals, including higher standards for students. But he thinks it needs to be more sensitive to individual students, and he thinks the funding situation needs reform.
Also he wants to increase teacher pay tied to some accountability measures.
Cute kid asks about year-round school. Obama says he might like the idea of changing the school calendar to avoid one long summer break.
Next question comes from an Iowan with a mental disability on employment possibilities. Obama praises tom harkin forhis work on the issue and promises to get one of his staff to help Him get in touch withthe right people.
Next question is ,what has happened to our democratic party? Dems are too friendly to big business and too soft on immigration.
Obama says you can’t be pro-worker without also being pro-employer. Question-asker isn’t satisfied and asks more specifically about immigration.
Obama supports more secure border and better I’d verification. But he also thinks that those people who are here can’t - and shouldn’t - be sent home.
Last question comes from a student about how expensive college is. He says student loan systemshould be reformed so banks are no longer making money on kids.
Obama is also in favor of expanding national service programs and offering to pay for education for kids who go into certain important professions (like teaching).
He closes by waving a supporter cardsnd asking is to get involved. More thoughts later
April 6th, 2007
John Edwards recently sent out the first mailing of the 2008 primary season to 70,000 Iowans. The mailing includes a detailed description of his health care plan and a DVD (found here) that describes the plan. The video is quite effective though it’s unclear how many of the 70,000 people who received it will actually watch it. However, it is a clear sign of how serious Edwards takes Iowa and also of the emphasis that he is placing on health care. It also gives away his campaign strategy.
Edwards’ focus on health care makes Iraq a secondary issue for him. Although he voted for the Iraq War in 2002, he has since made a very public mea culpa and has been forgiven by anti-war left (as Ed Fallon’s endorsement of Edwards shows). This enables him to dodge the debate over Iraq, which will be the most divisive part of the campaign. From this, one can surmise the Edwards’ road map to the nomination. The second tier candidates (Biden, Dodd and Richardson) are running on experience, specifically that they have the experience to help avoid further American embarrassment in the Middle East and one of Barack Obama’s major selling points was that he was against the Iraq War from the beginning. And we all know how Hillary Clinton voted on Iraq. They will all tear each other apart while Edwards can avoid the entire mess. Edwards then sails through the early primary states as the field narrows. Once it becomes a two-man race, he takes on the wounded survivor of the Hillary-Barack fight over Iraq on February 5th. He defeats his badly bruised opponent and becomes the nominee.
With l’affaire Geffen and Artur Davis’s comments in Selma, Clinton and Obama seem to be doing all they can make this scenario possible. However, with Edwards tipping his hand, both Clinton and Obama still have time to change gears before Edwards successfully takes advantage of the media obsession with them so that he can become the nominee.
March 5th, 2007
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