Is Harkin In The Clear?

In the most recent addition of Chris Cilizza’s Friday line mentioning Senate seats that might change hands in 2008, Iowa was not mentioned at all while safely Republican states like Nebraska and Mississippi were. Charlie Cook also sees Harkin’s seat as relatively safe, as does Stu Rothenberg.

Although there has been rampant speculation that Steve King might run for Senate, this indicates that even if King does run, the consensus is forming already that Harkin is a shoo-in. This will make it very difficult for any Republican to fundraise until it can be shown that Harkin is vulnerable. If King does run, it would be tilting at windmills, most similar to when Denise Majette gave up her House seat in order to lose a Senate race by 20 points in Georgia in 2004. Although Harkin will never win by the same margins that Chuck Grassley was able to win by when he ran against Art Small of “Think Big, Vote Small” fame, Harkin should be able to coast to a relatively comfortable victory if the political climate stays the same or doesn’t deteriorate too much. After all if you’ve defeated five incumbent Republican members of the U.S. House or Senate, this guy shouldn’t be much of a challenge.

1 comment February 16th, 2007