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Hotline has it confirmed that Evan Bayh, a frequenter of our fine state this past year, will release a statement tomorrow quitting the presidential race.
This comes even after he made some pretty aggressive staffing moves over the past few weeks. He had staffers working field in Iowa during the 2006 campaign, and he has been snatching people up since then to fill key roles. From what we know, he had quite a few positions filled.
I certainly didn’t expect a candidate with $10 million in the bank to drop out just like that. Think it was Obama, as some have speculated? Or Vilsack? Or what?
December 15th, 2006
Via Hotline On Call, we learn that Rudy Giuliani will be campaigning for Republican gubernatorial hopeful Jim Nussle and Republican congressional candidate Mike Whalen in the days leading up to Election Day. There’s no question that spending time with Iowa Republicans is good for Giuliani as he mulls a presidential run in 2008, but what could be the effects on these two Iowa races?
Sure, Giuliani brings a lot of star-power with him, and he conjures up memories of 9/11 — we all know how good Republicans are at wrapping themselves in the flag — but he is also widely known as a liberal Republican, particularly for his pro-choice views. Should we be surprised that two pro-life candidates like Nussle and Whalen have attached themselves to the Giuliani teat? I don’t think so.
We’ve watched Nussle do his hustle on choice since the beginning of the campaign. And in such a split electorate, it should come as no surprise that he is trying to pivot a bit to the left; in fact, that has been a nationwide trend among GOP gubernatorial candidates according to the New York Times.
Whalen’s pro-life cred has been questioned as well. Last April, the Krusty Konservative noted Whalen’s “general ignorance and his lack of interest” in the issue and that he once told people that he was only pro-life “because his consultants told him he had to be.” But again, we shouldn’t be surprised of his posturing; he is running in unfriendly territory, a district that Kerry and Gore both won.
But therein lies the rub! If Nussle and Whalen go too far off the right-wing reservation, the base will be less enthusiastic about the election, perhaps not volunteering or not voting at all. Besides, as we have learned these last few years, when voters have a chance to vote for a Republican or a Republican-lite, they go for the real Republican. As we’ll likely find out in a mere two weeks, the same goes for Democrats.
October 24th, 2006
In the past couple days pretty much all anyone is talking about are the candidates’ reports filed yesterday on money raised and spent. The reports are available on the IECDB website.
If you want a good summary, see what Chris Woods over at Political Forecast has to say. He has a good post exclusively on the gubernatorial race, where Culver has out-fundraised Nussle by $200,000. It is certainly interesting to see who’s been donating, including a selection of presidential hopefuls.
Looking closer to home in Grinnell’s State House race in the last quarter (July 15-Oct 14)
Danny Carroll
CoH: $35,808.04
Cash contributions: $94,367.40
In-kind contributions: $104,239.94
Expenditures: $85,435.83
Debt: $0
Eric Palmer
CoH: $11,487.12
Cash contributions: $60,095.60
In-Kind contributions: $40,233.94
Expenditures: $65,226.97
Debt: $0
Clearly it isn’t great news to see that Carroll has more money than Palmer at this point in the game, and Palmer certainly could’ve used the money from Warner’s PAC. However, I also know that Palmer has been working tirelessly on this campaign, and it seems impossible that someone could meet both the candidates and not come away with a better impression of Eric.
October 20th, 2006
Mark Warner’s PAC, Forward Together, is holding an online vote to determine which Iowa legislature candidates it will give $5000 (House) or $6500 (Senate). It’s a great perk that presidential hopefuls do this sort of thing in Iowa, since that amount of money really makes a huge difference in a state race.
Please cast your vote for Eric Palmer now.
Eric Palmer is challenging extremist conservative Danny Carroll, who he came painfully close to unseating in ‘04. Carroll has had the benefit of visits from conservative fundraising powerhouses John “I’m a panderer not a uniter” McCain, Sam “I hate evolution” Brownback, Haley “I hate Jews and Blacks” Barbour, and Newt “My conservatism doesn’t need explaining” Gingrich. He’s also received a ton of money from convicted felon Thomas Grabinski.
Just to remind you a little more why Eric Palmer deserves your vote (as if you haven’t heard our spiel before), Carroll is also known for his attempts to suppress Grinnell College students’ votes and his outlandish ideas about gay marriage.
Please take a moment to make Mark Warner give Eric some dollas.
September 19th, 2006
The rumors are going around, and Vilsack is set to appear with Hillary in DC this week at a Democratic Governors Association press conference. Here’s how the Register reports it:
Some pundits as well as Democratic activists have suggested Vilsack would be a good fit on a ticket with Clinton as presidential nominee. Both are active in the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, and both have insisted they will not demand a specific date for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.
A few days back, Hotline proposed some theories about the role Hillary could play in the race for the ‘08 Democratic nomination. Theory 1:
…unless she either doesn’t run or appears very vulnerable early on , one theory of the case holds that they will spend their time cozying up to her and tearing into each other. (Grover Norquist endorses that theory, too.) At least in part, they’ll try to use the primaries to audition for the general election.
To be clear: Bayh, Warner, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack — they all want to be president, not vice president. But they will almost certainly hedge their bets. They will not run a true-blue, rouse-the-base primary campaign.
Theory 2, however, simply says that Hillary is too polarizing a figure and won’t get anywhere. In that case, though, candidates might still stick to centrist rhetoric in an effort to distinguish themselves from Clinton (if the voters aren’t convinced by Hillary’s current centrist bent).
Frank Luntz’s piece today doesn’t talk much about this, but Luntz does attempt to lay out a strategy for Hillary to get elected. I’m really not sure a short, public essay could possibly prove useful to a presidential campaign, but here’s his first recommendation:
First, she must be herself. Her recent tack to the right - from equivocating on the Iraq war, to supporting a ban on flag burning - is fooling no one and is seriously agitating her liberal base. The reason Hillary became so popular in the first place was her unflinching willingness to tell it like it is. She must say what she means, and mean what she says.
Similarly, recent efforts by Clinton to inject religious references into her speeches to prove she’s a person of faith is like fingernails on a chalkboard to Democrat primary voters. Clinton must win the primary first - then worry about the general election. If Democrats really cared about religion, they’d be Republicans.
Will she? And is she really the vicious liberal that Luntz thinks she is in the first place? Perhaps, but it’s not looking like it right now.
I should also note that our coverage of 2008 contenders has been spotty of late. Our schedules haven’t permitted us to attend the candidates’ appearances across the state (which isn’t to say we don’t like getting the invitations, so thanks to the staffers who have kept us on their mailing lists…), so we’ve been reading Chris’s coverage on PoliticalForecast. We hope to get better as our schedules permit, but we still plan to spend more time analyzing the political issues facing Iowa than we’ll spend on national political celebrity watch.
And check out MyDD’s presidential straw poll, now reinstated. Chris Bowers rightly discontinued it four months ago because of how repetitive the results were, but maybe things will be different now.
July 17th, 2006
After Russ Feingold made some Iowa visits (and even had an on-the-record chat with Drew), his Presidential aspirations seemed pretty clear. But now that he’s giving $5,000 to an Iowa State Senate candidate (whichever of the six listed win his online poll), it couldn’t be clearer.
That said, his focus on such relatively small races is admirable. He has $5,000 to give, and he knows how far that will go in a State Senate race here. This early in the game, $5,000 could make a world of difference for whatever campaign wins. I’m not sure you could get more political benefit for the buck than by donating to one of the Democratic challengers in the state legislative races right now, and he’s smart enough to realize it.
May 27th, 2006
When we contacted the three campaigns about conducting these interviews, the Fallon campaign was the first to respond. And they forwarded our questions on to not one, but three staffers: Volunteer Coordinator Rob Sand, Canvass Director Christina Jens, and Grassroots Organizer Adam Mason. And, while it made my job editing and compiling a little more complicated, I’m not complaining, because this interview, like the others, provides some pretty interesting reading.
IowaProgress: How did you get involved in politics?
Rob Sand: I was much more active with skateboarding at the beginning of high school than anything in politics beyond reading the newspaper. I didn’t feel like I could have much of an impact.
After my friends and I kept getting kicked out of skate spots, though, I got pissed and decided to start a campaign to get Decorah (my hometown) to build a public skatepark. It took nearly 2 years, and by the time the concrete was poured I had quit skating (too busy with the project), graduated high school, and left town. But the project taught me that one person can make a difference- I don’t think its cool for many in our cynical generation to think that, but I do. The skatepark made politics/public affairs my passion, and that’s why I’m working for Ed.
Christina Jens: My family’s always been politically aware. It was a common topic of conversation at the dinner table growing up. I fell into organizing in my last year of college. I unintentionally found myself heading up one of the student organizations at Iowa State, and the following summer also fell into a job canvassing with the State PIRGs. Much to my simultaneous joy and dismay, I discovered that I loved it.
Adam Mason: Studied Political Science, had early goals of being Diplomat, Foreign service ambitions. Became disenchanted with the system. Worked odd jobs from retail management to construction to janitor to hotel mgmt. Always found myself staying up to date on issues, world politics especially, Dc politics… Started reading about this Ed Fallon Guy in early 2005, liked wht he was saying, and started volunteering. A position to Organize came open in the Summer of 2005, and although I had no official political experience, was brought on and have been learning it, loving it, and hopefully accomplishing it.
IP: What do you do in off years when there aren’t elections? (Or what did you do before you joined this campaign?)
RS: I graduated college in December, took a graduation celebration vacation in January, and started here in February. Most folks I know switch between policy and campaign work depending on the year, or do consulting for other campaigns (school board, bond issues, voter referendum). Also, there’s always organizing for next year!
CJ: I spent 5 years canvassing and directing canvass operations for non-profit organizations around the country. I decided to come back to Iowa a year and half ago and worked providing technical support for customers of a local ISP. At the beginning of the year I decided I needed to get back in to organizing, and volunteered on a local school referendum campaign, and worked a couple temp jobs before joining the Fallon for Governor staff. After this election season, I plan to stay active in politics; the capacity is yet to be determined.
AM: See above, but also: As this is my first campaign, I hope to be involved with an Ed Fallon administration. 2008 Presidential Candidates will probably be beginning soon after this November’s elections- as much as I hate to think about it. (So much talk about them already) and I would love an opportunity to continue working for Candidates I believe in (Russ Feingold) I would also consider the not-for-profit arena as a way to work along issue lines to continue helping people. (Social Justice, Clean Elections, Living Wage…)
IP: In this gubernatorial election, the candidates are using the internet a lot more than they did last time around. What role do you think the internet (both your campaign sites and online news outlets and blogs) will play in this election? In what ways has the internet changed Iowa political campaigning?
RS: The internet far surpasses any other tool for organizing and communication. It allows campaigns to organize and communicate with supporters, and allow supporters to organize and communicate amongst themselves. I think the sense of ownership the web provides citizens over the campaign is unparalled as a tool for getting volunteers and supporters to get more and more involved, and its the work those supporters do that can make the difference.
I think blogs are journalism’s last best hope, outside of a president with the intestinal fortitude to break up the media monopolies. Corporate media ownership demands returns for shareholders and reporting the news takes second place to that. Tough, investigative journalism- the kind we really need- demands too many resources and gives small returns, so our media quality is suffering. You can find a lot of stories breaking on blogs today. Even though few people read them, reporters are among their readers. So those investigations by “citizen reporters” usually end up making the papers and shaping the media agenda.
I honestly think any candidate that ignores what is being said in the blogosphere and power of the web is a losing candidate.
AM: It is very interesting to watch conversations in online communities. They are more lasting than just a speech or conversation, and therefore have the potential to reach more voters, and influence/involve that many more opinions. We have also seen the rise of online fundraising in the last few election cycles. As PAC’s continue to hold successful online fund drive’s, we see that this is a tool not to underestimate. I am not sure that the internet is revolutionizing the Iowa political climate, as many of the state’s voters are those that are slowest to embrace technology. However, as technology becomes more integrated, I look for the internet’s role to evolve. That being said, for those that do embrace technology, we must try and offer a campaign site that is exciting, interactive, and accessible. It is also beneficial to monitor and participate in blogs to share ideas and information.
IP: What role do you think students (should) play in Iowa politics?
RS: Its a cliched Catch-22 that politicians don’t listen to young people because they don’t vote, and young people don’t vote because politicians don’t listen. The last place to look for the instigation of major change is elected officials, so I think its up to us. Our generation needs to get off our asses and demand that there be a better situation for ourselves as adults and for our kids when they come around. 15% of us are doing a damn fine job, but at some point we have to stop talking to ourselves and get out there to engage our politically disengaged peers- but without sounding holier-than-thou or preachy. Blogging helps, talking to friends helps, organizing helps more. Sorry to offer a lot of bland platitudes…
CJ: An active one.
AM: Students have a long history of doing the “grunt work” of campaigning. They are the quickest and most willing to jump at opportunities Canvassing, phone banking, and in general just volunteering. As well they should, the decisions that are being made now in statehouses and in Washington will affect them for many many years to come. By becoming informed and active, they help ensure spirited debate, active campaigns, and voter participation.
IP: Iowa has a mix of urban voters and rural voters. Is it difficult to account for both groups in crafting your message?
RS, CJ, AM: It may be for some candidates. Ed Fallon has a common sense message that appeals to voters from all backgrounds. While he’s from Des Moines, he’s also served on the Agriculture Committee and is familiar with issues that affect all Iowans.
IP: (Specific for Fallon campaign) Your campaign has refused to take money from PACs (and has refused some other traditional forms of political contributions). Some have predicted that Nussle will have a record amount of cash for the general election. How will you deal with that inequality if yours is the campaign that wins the primary?
RS, CJ, AM: Ed Fallon has a long history of winning campaigns where he’s been outspent. We will address the issue through continuing to build our grassroots support and talking about the need to address the way that political campaigns are financed. We’re the only campaign that can provide a clear contrast to Nussle in this regard.
IP: Why is your campaign the best suited to beat Nussle?
RS, CJ, AM: We provide the clearest contrast to Nussle. Ed Fallon will continue to advocate for responsible land use, ensuring that all Iowans have access to healthcare, adequately funding out education system, and ensuring that our state’s government is accountable to Iowans, not to corporate sponsors.
IP: Do you have a funny anecdote you’d like to share? Or anything else to add?
RS: Anyone who’s ever canvassed for a job can tell you unbelievable stories. My favorite is the Balitmore, MD senior citizen who stepped out from him front door after I knocked on it and offered a fight with, “Just try me, boy!” while his wife chided him from inside. The 80-year-old man who answered in just bikini briefs was interesting too; I held my clipboard in the perfect position to block… things. Canvass: its the best job you’ll ever have.
May 3rd, 2006
In the second part of our three-part series, Jesse Harris, Field Director for Chet Culver’s campaign, took the time to answer our questions. Here’s what he had to say:
IowaProgress: How did you get involved in politics?
Jesse Harris: In the fall of 1999, I entered Simpson College just as Bill Bradley and Al Gore began to actively campaign in Iowa for the precinct caucuses. That campaign brought me into the political process and my interest in campaigns and public service hasn’t diminished. While in college I volunteered for the Bradley for President Campaign and then completed a summer internship in Congressman Leonard Boswell’s office in Washington, D.C. Although I had planned to attend graduate school, the prospect of working on a presidential campaign in 2003 and 2004 was too great to pass up. I was offered a position with the Edwards for President Campaign in Des Moines. For seven months I worked as a field organizer in Warren, Lucas, Clarke, Wayne and Decatur Counties. Following the caucus I continued to work for the campaign in Madison, Wisconsin and Minneapolis, Minnesota. That experience led me to continue working for Democratic candidates in Iowa.
IP: What do you do in off years when there aren’t elections? (Or what did you do before you joined this campaign?)
JH: In Iowa the campaign season really never ends. Just as one campaign passes there are new ones forming. Over the past three years I have worked for three different campaigns; the Edwards Campaign, the Iowa Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign and now the Culver for Governor Campaign. Since I graduated from Simpson, I have only spent five months outside of campaign work. In that time I served as a legislative assistant to State Senator Tom Rielly (D-Oskaloosa).
IP: In this gubernatorial election, the candidates are using the internet a lot more than they did last time around. What role do you think the internet (both your campaign sites and online news outlets and blogs) will play in this election? In what ways has the internet changed Iowa political campaigning?
JH: Without question, the internet has had deep and even profound effects on political campaigns. In some circles, the internet has even become the primary method that voters acquire information about elections and the issues at play in campaigns. While races used to be confined largely to local markets, today people throughout the country are able to acquire information on races from city hall to the White House. It has become a useful tool to update voters on the campaign, distribute information about policy positions and to raise money from a broader network of individuals.
Blogs have, in many respects, democratized journalism. Today, campaigns distribute information through a much wider universe of writers representing a number of different mediums. Blogs also reach more targeted communities of potential voters, particularly young people.
IP: What role do you think students (should) play in Iowa politics?
JH: Iowa and its residents have a significant voice in the American political process, more significant than virtually anywhere else in the country. This is true of students in Iowa as well. Nowhere else in the United States, excluding New Hampshire, will presidential candidates regularly visit college campuses and meet with students directly. With three universities, a large network of private liberal arts colleges and the state’s many community colleges, students in Iowa are positioned well to shape the public debate and push issues of concern to the forefront.
Of course, this applies to the governor’s race as well. Chet Culver will fight for Iowa’s young people. As governor, Chet will work to create good jobs with good benefits in every corner of the state so that college graduates will have every opportunity to live, work and raise their families in Iowa. As a former teacher Chet has worked tirelessly to increase participation among young people in Iowa and as a result participation among 18-24 year olds has increased dramatically.
IP: Iowa has a mix of urban voters and rural voters. Is it difficult to account for both groups in crafting your message?
JH: I believe that there is more that unites Iowans than divides them. In fact, Iowa’s mixture of urban and rural residents is one of the primary strengths of our state. In the end, all Iowans, whether they are rural or urban voters, Republican or Democrats, want high quality schools, affordable and accessible health care, and a strong, vibrant economy. Chet has proposed the most comprehensive campaign plan of any candidate running for governor. Chet’s “Leading Iowa Forward” will show voters specifically what he intends to do as governor. Specifically, he has released a comprehensive health care plan and an alternative energy plan both of which will benefit all Iowans in every corner of the state.
IP: (Campaign-specific question) How involved were you in choosing Patty Judge as running-mate? How do you respond to criticism that the choice was made for political reasons?
JH: In the end, the most important criteria for selecting a running mate is 1) Is this person qualified to become governor of the state of Iowa and 2) In maintaining a strong, vibrant Democratic Party, will this person stand up for Democrats and our Democratic values. In Patty Judge, Chet selected someone who not only meets this standard but far exceeds it. Secretary Judge has an extensive and distinguished record of public service. As a registered nurse she understands the challenges facing our health care system particularly women’s health care. As a two-term state senator, Patty developed policy on a wide range of issues and in doing so was elected to the Senate Democratic leadership. As Secretary of Agriculture for the past eight years, Patty has served at the highest levels of the executive branch and oversees one of the largest state agencies. She would be ready from the first minute to assume the duties of the governor’s office. Throughout her life, Patty has consistently supported and worked for Democratic candidates throughout Iowa. There is never any question about her commitment to the Democratic Party here in Iowa. Knowing that Patty Judge is ready to become governor and that she will fight for our Democratic principles, the choice was easy.
IP: Why is your campaign the best suited to beat Nussle?
JH: Chet Culver is the candidate best positioned to beat Jim Nussle this fall. Between Chet and Patty, this ticket has won four statewide elections and a total of 70 of the state’s 99 counties. Chet won his reelection by over 100,000 votes. Chet Culver and Patty Judge have proven that they can compete with Republicans in every corner of Iowa.
Moreover, Chet Culver is the only Democratic candidate currently beating Jim Nussle in the polls. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Chet beats Nussle 40% to 38%. In a KCCI poll, Chet outdistances Nussle 44% to 43%. Nussle beats all of the other Democratic candidates and by significant margins.
Finally, he is the only Democrat running for governor who has demonstrated the capacity to keep pace with Jim Nussle on fundraising. In 2005, Chet raised more money than all the other Democrats seeking the nomination combined. The 2006 governor’s race will be the most expensive in Iowa history and we need a candidate that can match the Republicans.
April 29th, 2006
It seems these days that as candidates begin to gear up for 2008, Iowa becomes a revolving door for those with aspirations of presidential glory. To wit, just today our fine state was graced with the presence of none other than Bill Frist, everyone’s favorite ultra-conversative surgeon and part-time senate majority leader. Apparently, Frist is in town to tout health care legislature to be proposed in Congress, which though it isn’t “the complete answer,” will “shrink the number of uninsured Americans.” One might surmise that when a medically trained doctor attains the leadership of the senate, we might see more aggressive health care legislation, but it seems Dr. Frist is more preoccupied with pandering to the religious right.
In keeping with Iowa’s status as a revolving door for 2008 candidates, the Washington Post reports that in a week none other than Rudy Giuliani will be in Iowa raising money for republican gubernatorial candidate, Jim Nussle. Does this mean Rudy has a huge affinity for Nussle and just wants to see a local boy do good, or does Rudy have machinations on sitting pretty in the oval office one day soon? Giuliani recently went through Pennsylvania and raised money for Rick Santorum, and given Santorum’s sparkling personality and credentials, one might postulate that the only reason for Giuliani’s visits is to broaden his visibility nation-wide? Rudy in ‘08? We shall see.
Next, on this page on The Post’s website, called The Fix, one can find blog style entries about national politics. Of interest is that Friday’s entry handicaps Iowa as the number 3 most contested gubernatorial election happening in ‘06. Also of interest is the fact that while the blurb on Iowa mentions that Ed Fallon is polling equal to Mike Blouin with a laughable fraction of the money, Fallon has no candidate profile on the Post’s page regarding Iowa.
A couple more things of note. Today Jim Nussle proposed an energy bill in congress featuring a mandate to increase renewable energy. This sure seems like convenient timing after virtually every democratic candidate Nussle is likely to face in November has already come out strongly for renewable energy. As well, this bill doesn’t cover renewable energy for electricity, but only renewable energy as a gasoline replacement. Iowa has the ability to be energy independent, and it’s perhaps time to realize that ethanol85 may not be the answer. Nussle is trying to turn E85 into what amounts to a hotbutton issue for Iowa, not recognizing the fact that E85 is still dependent upon gasoline, and that Iowans are abroad and dying in a misguided war to secure the future of our gasoline-dependent state. Renewable for Iowa does not mean just ethanol, and this legislation is a smoke-screen to get Iowans to think that Nussle is an energy responsible candidate.
In local legislature, the budget talks remain deadlocked, the contentious issues being pay raises for teaches (how in anyone’s right mind can they oppose this?) and tax cuts for seniors.
Finally: All Iowans between 18 and 22 are now eligible for Mumps vaccinations, regardless of whether they are enrolled in college. If you don’t have it, I’d recommend looking into getting vaccinated.
April 24th, 2006
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