Search Results for ‘only poll that matters’

Bovine, Boz, Obama and the “Big Trifecta”

Harkin Steak Fry

Those who went to the Harkin Steak Fry may have noticed that we had a crack team of bloggers there. In the following post, Ben and Alec reflect over the highs and lows of the event, which has made the news across the country.

Alec filed the following post:
The Harkin Steak fry gave me so much to sink my teeth into that I don’t know where to begin.

First, the basics—it didn’t rain and the steak was good. I hear the beans were a little cold. The lack of coleslaw was an enormous oversight. Someone said they liked the chicken but that it could have used a little salt. I didn’t try, nor hear anything about the bread. All things considered, it was a good day on the food front.

Oh, and there were speeches and stuff.

Ben, Freeda and I first stumbled by some of Evan Bayh’s people from the All America PAC. We asked one of them how long he had been with Bayh’s campaign, and he corrected us (with tongue firmly in cheek) that it was a political action committee. We were assured that Bayh would be around Iowa next year. Surprise surprise.

Soon after, we got a hold of Vilsack standing by the ice cream machine and taking pictures. Ben asked him whether the speech he gave for Grinnell commencement in the spring could be the basis of a possible stump speech (read: the 08′ question creatively reworded). The Governor said he had a lot on his mind and that he would continue to go around the country and tell people about the issues he thought were important. It was a snoozer for an answer, but I guess we couldn’t have expected the man to announce his candidacy to three college kids with press passes. Ah well. Then, Ben asked how congressional candidates should talk about Iraq before November. Vilsack said that, as he saw it, the mission in Iraq had changed from three years ago—with an elected government and a “standing army” the mission needed to shift to “building civil society.” He didn’t say it upfront, but he strongly hinted that he supported some sort of phased withdrawal. Could Vilsack be changing the position he offered in June to the DLC?

I caught a glimpse of the back of Obama’s head in the middle of a giggling crowd. I knew it was no use to try to get a word with him at that point. Mark that as the first failed chance to nab Obama.

Next, we found Mary and Chet Culver hanging out by the press. After shaking his hand and introducing ourselves (I’ve met Chet before, but I forgive him), we asked him what issues he planned to highlight before November in order to secure a majority of the undecided voters (the people who, if the latest DM poll is right, are going to decide this thing). He said that he would keep detailing his plan to “move Iowa forward” and said it was important for people to know that he was a coach and a teacher. In what seems to be a recurrent theme, he talked about these credentials as a private citizen far more than his time as Sec of State. Indeed, all day, the only person to dwell on Culver’s job as Secretary of State was Harkin, who said Chet had done more than anyone else in the country to make voting accessible to all. If Harkin can praise Culver’s time in elected office that profusely, why is it that Culver seems to stress the teacher/coach angle far more often?

I’d guess the emphasis on having been a teacher/coach is meant to contrast Chet’s private life with Nussle’s lack of non-government work (besides being a lawyer, which is a dirty word in the Republican party), but I’d like to see Chet talk more about his time as Sec of State.

In what goes down as the best moment of the day, Mary Culver told us she reads our blog and even recognized Hannah as a contributor. That is, of course, the quickest way to a blogger’s heart. Swoon. She said she was surprised Nussle had gone negative so early and speculated that low internal polling numbers motivated his turn to mudslinging.

As we made our way toward the stage we briefly got to speak with Jerome Armstrong and also shook hands with Mark Warner. Sadly, we didn’t get a chance to pose a question—the man seemed pretty intent on working the crowd. But something tells me we’ll be seeing a great deal more of him next year.

And then from Ben:
Shortly after, we watched Leonard Boswell take the stage. I know this isn’t news for many of you, but it was the first time I had seen the Boz since his successful surgery, and I just have to mention how good he looks. Slimmed down and full of energy, he looks at least 15 years younger. And he sounded confident.

He’s going to win this election and it won’t even be close.

After his speech, which I largely missed, Secretary of Ag. candidate Denise O’Brien spoke about the need for a “safe and healthy Iowa” to fairly large applause. Sec. of State candidate Mike Mauro spoke next and got the crowd riled up with an attack on Katherine Harris and the 2000 Florida Recount (The Dems are never going to forget that). Patty Judge, hopefully our next Lt. Governor, spoke afterwards. She’s not that polished but she gave the crowd some good lines. Biggest applause lines: education, abortion rights (”Choice matters in Iowa”), and perhaps surprisingly stem cell research. I’m not sure how potent that issue will actually be here in Iowa, but Claire McCaskill does seem to be using it with success in her Missouri senate race this year.

Something to think about…

Up next was Mark Warner, who seemed a bit out of place at this Iowa Dems event considering his presence wasn’t announced in advance, but was still greeted with fairly strong applause and a small standing O. He joked that some people still hadn’t recognized him at the event (maybe that’s why he was there — gotta get that name id up) and said, “It all starts in Iowa,” which I took to be a not-so-subtle reference to the 2008 Iowa caucuses. He ended with fists pumped and a “Let’s win” shout, which played well with the crowd.

Governor Vilsack spoke next, almost wistfully (”I’m ever so proud to be an Iowa Democrat. Ever so proud.”). He gave a sort of retrospective on the last eight years. He’s probably experiencing a bit of uncertainty right now, as he’ll soon be out of a job and though he’s eyeing the 2008 race, polls show him not even coming close to winning his own state’s caucuses… He spoke about the need for community and the positive role government can play in people’s lives. He talked about the fact that Americans were feeling anxious, especially after the Bush failures of Iraq and Katrina. It was actually one of the better speeches I’ve seen him give.

Culver spoke next and did a pretty good job of energizing the crowd.

Lots of Culver-Judge signs were waving. A choice quote: “I want to be the people’s governor. Jim Nussle wants to be the special interests ‘governor.” (Good, me likes the populist rhetoric.) He also said that “We’re ready to implement our plan when we get there.” I’m not sure how effective this “plan” rhetoric actually is. Most voters won’t read his plan, and it seems kind of vague, but maybe I’m wrong. He encouraged the crowd to take part in the three keys to victory: Volunteer (canvass, make calls), Visibility (put up signs, bumperstickers), and Vote (duh). This was good, I thought. Voters and activists want to feel engaged in the campaign. They want to feel part of something and the more they feel connected the more they will do. He promised the “Big Trifecta” would pull through in November.

Tom Harkin, the man of the hour, spoke next. Always gracious, he thanked the woman doing sign-language next to him on the stage. Seriously, this guy is full of heart. He said some nice words about Culver and then started ripping into the Republicans. He said the GOP was in “full fear-mongering mode” and they were trying to do anything to distract voters from “Bush’s war.” “There’s no virtue in staying the course if the course you’re on is headed over the cliff,” he said. “There’s no virtue in being strong and wrong.” He also threw some jabs at Nussle, saying that “Bush and Nussle are attached at the hip.”

Harkin’s smart: Bush is an anchor for every GOP candidate this year — from dog-catcher to senator.

Obamarama spoke next and boy did he get an applause. He complimented Iowa and said, “I’m going to have to come again.” Is he running in ‘08? More hints that he is. He gave a strong speech and the crowd obviously loved it. He recalled an anecdote where he met Marjorie Lewis, a 105-year-old black woman while he was running for the Senate. He then proceeded to tell America’s story through her life. It was an excellent rhetorical device and the speech really tugged at your Democratic and progressive heartstrings. He said that whenever he is cynical about politics he thinks of Marjorie Lewis and what she’s seen. It was a long speech, but his eloquent delivery seemed to keep the crowd captivated. I overheard one grandmotherly lady behind me remark that “Edwards-Obama would be a great ticket.” Interesting…

Needless to say he got a standing O at the end (actually he received several throughout the speech). Harkin thanked everyone for coming and that was it. We stayed around for a bit longer after the speeches, hoping to get a chance to interview Obama, Harkin, etc, which we were promised by the Harkin people but there was such a long line of well-wishers and star-struck fans that we figured it wasn’t worth it to wait around. So we packed up the car and headed home, scheming all the way home over who we’d like to run in 2008.

3 comments September 18th, 2006

Polls, polls, polls

As the election countdowns begin, we’re starting to see some more frequent polling data, which is a relief after the snazzy, yet frustratingly out-of-date 2006 Election Guide the New York Times has had up for the past few months. Sure it is color-coded and has interactive features which allow users to act out their fantasies regarding the November results, but they’re using polls from March.

The Wall Street Journal and John Zogby released polling data on Monday showing Nussle leading Culver 46-43. The Nussle campaign’s email, after employing a bizarre analogy comparing the gubernatorial race to the upcoming Cy-Hawks game (is Nussle ISU or UI? I have no idea…), was cautiously optimistic:

We are prepared for this race to go down to the wire - and we know the only poll that matters in the one on Election Day.

Even so, it’s worth looking inside the WSJ numbers, and the news is not good for Chet Culver.

(The IRP offers a more triumphant and less credible analysis.) Of course, looking inside the numbers would reveal that they are within the margin of error, just as has been reported in a KCCI poll released Wednesday that shows Culver up 48-43, with a 4 point margin of error.

Given that is seems unlikely that Nussle would lose three points while Culver gained five in the span of a few days (would that it were so), let’s assume that the differences arose from the fact that Zogby is a conservative pollster, KCCI being more liberal. So what’s the take home lesson? Surprise, surprise, it is going to be a close race.

Update: the Register just released a poll today (September 17) that shows Nussle and Culver tied 44-44. It offers some interesting demographic analyses.

Add comment September 15th, 2006

GOP Farm Team

Via the Des Moines Register, we learn that the Iowa Farm Bureau has announced its “2006 Friends of Agriculture.” So who made it on to the illustrious list? Gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle, secretary of agriculture candidate Bill Northey, congressional candidates Mike Whalen and Jeff Lamberti, and U.S. Representatives Tom Latham and Steve King. Hmm, I can’t put my finger on it, but there’s something similar about all those guys. What is it? What could it be? Oh yes: they’re all Republicans.

(The group declined to endorse either candidate in the second congressional district but I guess that’s a win for the Dems.)

The Register waits until the last paragraph to remind readers that the bureau is “a Republican-leaning group that supports measures to restrict taxes,” but at least they did so at all. Context matters, especially in the case of innocuous sounding names. Without context, Americans might be fooled into believing some boating group that wanted swift truth or something was actually a surrogate for the Bush campaign. Nah, that would never happen.

The only person who may be surprised by the Bureau’s endorsements is Leonard Boswell — or at least his web designer. According to Boswell’s webpage, he’s garnered the Bureau’s endorsement “every time he’s run for office.” Not anymore, Boz. Not anymore.

UPDATE: The Congressman’s webpage has since been changed to remove the now-false sentence. Kudos for the quick response. And as an aside, I wouldn’t worry much about not getting the endorsement. It looks like Boswell is doing just fine.

Add comment September 12th, 2006


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