Search Results for ‘nevada caucuses’
A number of states, including California, Texas and New York are in the process of moving their Presidential Primaries to February 5. Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma and Utah already have primaries scheduled then. In addition, Florida might move up to January 26 and Alabama to February 2. It has the potential to create total chaos in the Presidential nominating process and to set up a chain reaction that pushes up the Iowa Caucuses to the first week in January, if not into 2007.
However, regardless of what happens with the actual timing of the Caucuses, what impact will a front-loaded primary schedule have on Iowa? The 2004 primary schedule was pretty frontloaded but by effectively ending the primary season before Lincoln’s birthday, the 2008 schedule will further elevate the importance of Iowa. Candidates will, at best, get four chances to prove themselves in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. There will be no opportunity to build firewalls at all or regain momentum after those four states and even if a candidate suffers one small slip or performs ever so slightly below expectations, they will be finished. Iowa will be the first and best chance for a candidate to distinguish themselves.
The frontloading will have a disproportionate impact on second tier candidates like Chris Dodd. Second tier candidates won’t have the opportunity to build momentum or develop a following if they do well in early states. This applies even to Tom Vilsack, who is considered the only second tier candidate who has a chance to win the Caucuses. Even if he takes advantage of his hometown appeal and wins the caucuses, he’ll have to translate his Iowa success into the millions of dollars necessary be competitive in California and New York in three weeks while simultaneously trying to do well in the other early primaries.
The frontloading makes Iowa more important but hurts the process as a whole. It is a move towards a national primary, which is one of the worst possible ways to nominate a President. Although it seems unlikely that any real reform can happen now, one would hope that after the 2008 election, both the DNC and the RNC can get together and actually set up a workable schedule to avoid this type of mess in the future.
February 18th, 2007
According to today’s Register, “Des Moines-area tourism officials have launched an effort to attract “A-list” rock stars, comedians and other Hollywood types for what they hope will be a nationally televised show to kick off the 2008 Iowa caucuses…No performers have been booked, but organizers say names like pop princess Britney Spears and patriotic country western star Lee Greenwood are on their early wish list.”
Unlike other commentators like David Yepsen, I think this is a great idea. (And not just because “Oops I Did It Again” is the story of John Kerry’s candidacy for 2008) The best way to draw attention to the Iowa Caucuses is having a second rate version of the Super Bowl halftime show. After all, if concerts can end famine in Africa, it might just get America hooked on the Iowa Caucuses. So hooked that everyone outside Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, might realize that they don’t have any say who the Presidential nominees are. In the meantime, I look forward to hearing Wu Tang perform an Iowa caucus version of one of their hits, come on everyone, check out my Mike Gravel Pit.
January 3rd, 2007
Even though the Iowa Caucuses are over a year away, candidates are already hiring staffers and websites are already chronicling the exploits of these politicos–or at least posting their names. Over on TPM Cafe, there’s a rather long list of everyone ever vaguely mentioned as working for a campaign on Hotline or The Fix, unfortunately this means it is rather inaccurate (for example, Jean Hessburg is most definitely not working for Hillary Clinton, she’s running the Nevada caucuses) and rather consultant heavy.
George Washington University’s Democracy in Action also has a much smaller list as part of its attempt to chronicle the campaign. However, it does have the benefit of accuracy as well as succinct bios for those readers who always wondered what Jesse Harris majored in at college. (History and Political Science). However, judging by GWU’s efforts to chronicle Iowa staffers in the 2004 General and the 2004 Caucuses, it’s sure to become the definitive site for those just dying to know how many field organizers John Edwards has in Ottumwa and whether you need all of them to screw in a light bulb.
December 30th, 2006
As the Des Moines Register reports, the Democratic Party has kept the Iowa Caucuses as the first primary contest for its presidential nomination, but it has shifted others around. It seems that they want to compensate for Iowa’s ethnic homogeneity by moving other states up closer to Iowa: “Contenders include Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada and South Carolina.” And this is apparently good news to Vilsack:
The additional primaries and caucuses could assist Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack should he decide to run for president, by giving him a chance to demonstrate that he has appeal in similar-size states. Vilsack would be expected to win the Iowa caucuses. Vilsack is scheduled to headline the premier Democratic Party banquet in South Carolina next month.
I guess Paul Begala will have to drive his CNN RV out here again after all.
March 13th, 2006
