Search Results for ‘margin of error’
As the election countdowns begin, we’re starting to see some more frequent polling data, which is a relief after the snazzy, yet frustratingly out-of-date 2006 Election Guide the New York Times has had up for the past few months. Sure it is color-coded and has interactive features which allow users to act out their fantasies regarding the November results, but they’re using polls from March.
The Wall Street Journal and John Zogby released polling data on Monday showing Nussle leading Culver 46-43. The Nussle campaign’s email, after employing a bizarre analogy comparing the gubernatorial race to the upcoming Cy-Hawks game (is Nussle ISU or UI? I have no idea…), was cautiously optimistic:
We are prepared for this race to go down to the wire - and we know the only poll that matters in the one on Election Day.
Even so, it’s worth looking inside the WSJ numbers, and the news is not good for Chet Culver.
(The IRP offers a more triumphant and less credible analysis.) Of course, looking inside the numbers would reveal that they are within the margin of error, just as has been reported in a KCCI poll released Wednesday that shows Culver up 48-43, with a 4 point margin of error.
Given that is seems unlikely that Nussle would lose three points while Culver gained five in the span of a few days (would that it were so), let’s assume that the differences arose from the fact that Zogby is a conservative pollster, KCCI being more liberal. So what’s the take home lesson? Surprise, surprise, it is going to be a close race.
Update: the Register just released a poll today (September 17) that shows Nussle and Culver tied 44-44. It offers some interesting demographic analyses.
September 15th, 2006
Well, it seems we’ve dropped the ball this summer and haven’t been able to post regularly. We may be scattered across the country, but we haven’t forgotten about Iowa! I only have limited Internet access, but I ran across a few stories today that seem interesting, so I thought I’d put them up some links.
The Register commissioned a poll to find out which likely 2008 presidential candidates Iowans favor. The results are pretty interesting with Edwards taking the lead with 30% support, followed by Clinton with 26%, Kerry with 12%, and our own governor taking only 10%. Needless to say this probably comes as a blow to Vilsack, because if this is the kind of support he has in his own state it doesn’t bode well for gaining support elsewhere. Also, this is the first poll done that doesn’t give Clinton the lead, which could very well be related to the fact that she hasn’t campaigned here since 2003, whereas Edwards has already visited the state at least once this year. Clinton recently changed her position on ethanol, and she now supports funding for research and development, whereas before she was opposed to subsidies. I criticized McCain for this very about-face, and I still think it is an obvious ploy to win support in the caucuses that doesn’t necessarily reflect how a person would act in office. However, Edwards’s lead over Clinton is within the margin of error, and maybe if she actually campaigned in the state she could do really well. Basically this poll shows that Iowa would definitely not be a lock down for Vilsack in the caucuses, so it will be interesting to see how it changes the early campaigning techniques.
Also, there is an interesting article on how the Democrats are reacting to the influence of blogs on politics, and you guys should check it out. Apparently Vilsack doesn’t like being personally attacked by blogs, poor guy.
June 11th, 2006
The Des Moines Register released a poll today that was conducted May 29-June 1, so I imagine this will be the last numbers we get before Tuesday. Here’s how it breaks down:
Culver 36% - Blouin 28% - Fallon 21% - Mohammed 1% - 14% undecided
It doesn’t look like the survey questions created the alleged “Fallon supporters don’t fit the likely voters criteria” effect, but with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points and a huge chunk of undecideds, a convention decision is becoming more and more likely. I wish Drew’s blog was still around so we could review what the delegate break down would be.
The article accompanying the poll does a surprisingly good job of highlighting and analyzing the things each candidate has going for him: Blouin is counting on union organizers for his GOTV, but according to the poll Culver has more support amongst union families. Fallon claims independents and Republicans will jump ship and vote in the Democratic primary, but the poll also says Blouin and Culver have picked up more outside the party support. Culver has garnered the most youth support, but people over 64 are much more likely to turn out. The article also does a nice job of interviewing supporters who sum up the main issues of the campaign, but you can read that for yourself.
Finally, the poll also asked if people wanted to continue with the direction and priorities for the state set by Governor Vilsack. A whopping 50% said no! I definitely wouldn’t want to commence my bid for the presidency with that kind of sentiment a brewin’, but that’s just me.
All in all, I think this quote from a Fallon press release sums it up best: “‘We’ll find out on election day,’ he said while eating a sandwich.”
p.s. The coverage of Mike Blouin’s bus tour on his website actually resembles a blog! After months and months of campaigning and claiming to be tech savvy and “hip”, someone has finally grasped that “blog” is more than a buzz word! I bet Andy McGuire had something to do with this. (She told us she’s addicted to blogs.)
June 4th, 2006
