Search Results for ‘dnc’
A number of states, including California, Texas and New York are in the process of moving their Presidential Primaries to February 5. Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma and Utah already have primaries scheduled then. In addition, Florida might move up to January 26 and Alabama to February 2. It has the potential to create total chaos in the Presidential nominating process and to set up a chain reaction that pushes up the Iowa Caucuses to the first week in January, if not into 2007.
However, regardless of what happens with the actual timing of the Caucuses, what impact will a front-loaded primary schedule have on Iowa? The 2004 primary schedule was pretty frontloaded but by effectively ending the primary season before Lincoln’s birthday, the 2008 schedule will further elevate the importance of Iowa. Candidates will, at best, get four chances to prove themselves in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. There will be no opportunity to build firewalls at all or regain momentum after those four states and even if a candidate suffers one small slip or performs ever so slightly below expectations, they will be finished. Iowa will be the first and best chance for a candidate to distinguish themselves.
The frontloading will have a disproportionate impact on second tier candidates like Chris Dodd. Second tier candidates won’t have the opportunity to build momentum or develop a following if they do well in early states. This applies even to Tom Vilsack, who is considered the only second tier candidate who has a chance to win the Caucuses. Even if he takes advantage of his hometown appeal and wins the caucuses, he’ll have to translate his Iowa success into the millions of dollars necessary be competitive in California and New York in three weeks while simultaneously trying to do well in the other early primaries.
The frontloading makes Iowa more important but hurts the process as a whole. It is a move towards a national primary, which is one of the worst possible ways to nominate a President. Although it seems unlikely that any real reform can happen now, one would hope that after the 2008 election, both the DNC and the RNC can get together and actually set up a workable schedule to avoid this type of mess in the future.
February 18th, 2007
Here’s a prediction: Hillary Clinton is going to lose the Iowa caucuses. Perhaps very badly. And it’s because she is still fumbling on Iraq.
In perhaps her most forceful statement on the issue, Clinton told DNC members on Friday: “If I had been president in October of 2002, I would not have started this war… If we in Congress don’t end this war by January of 2009, as president, I will.”
But according to a survey (pdf) done by The Politico (via MyDD), she does not regret casting her 2002 vote in favor of the war. This is a very tricky line to walk: As president, she would not have been for war, but as senator she would be? Isn’t there a singular responsibility as an elected official to do what’s best for her country, regardless of title? I’m sorry, but this is straight out of a 2004 John Kerry campaign.
MyDD’s Chris Bowers notes that Clinton is trying to pull a Joe Lieberman: appear anti-war to accrue Democratic votes, but maintain support for the war in reality. It worked in Connecticut, he says, because “low information voters just won’t know the difference.” Unfortunately for Clinton, Iowa caucus-goers are hardly low information voters. They brave the sleet and snow in order to stand — sometimes for hours — in crowded high school gymnasiums. And they sure as hell know where the candidates stand.
They also, sure as hell, oppose the Iraq War. The AP reported yesterday that the Iraq War is the number one issue for Iowa voters and that Iowa Democrats are overwhelmingly against it: 86 percent of Iowa Dems said the war wasn’t worth it and 76 percent favored at least the beginnings of withdrawal. According to Former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Dave Nagle, “Anybody who tries to toe-step around it is going to have a real problem.”
At the moment, it looks like Hillary Clinton fits that anybody description pretty well. Despite a recent ARG poll that had her in the lead, every other poll coming out of the Hawkeye State has shown her down, behind Edwards, Obama, and sometimes even Vilsack. The fact of the matter is, the more people get to know her, the more they will get to know her views on Iraq. Which is why it looks like Iowa Dems will be looking for somebody else.
February 6th, 2007
Rubbermaid announced last night that it will be moving 500 jobs from Centerville (population 6,000) to Kansas. The company turned down the offer of a $1 million tax break under Vilsack’s Iowa Values Fund, and executives explained that they believe there are more opportunities for expansion in Kansas. Vilsack’s statement, issued this afternoon, doesn’t seem very reassuring to the hundreds of Iowans finding their jobs in jeopardy lately:
Today’s news is upsetting, but it reinforces my commitment to creating and retaining sustainable, quality jobs in our state. We are working every day to transform Iowa’s economy and minimize the impact of a changing, global marketplace.
Chris Woods at Political Forecast covers the possibility of an override of Vilsack’s veto on eminent domain.
The Concord Monitor’s story on Vilsack’s visit wasn’t exactly positive- it noted that he doesn’t have foreign policy experience beyond a few recent trips abroad and that he called complaints in New Hampshire about the possibility of making the primary later in the nominating calendar ”overblown.”
Another article says Vilsack’s people are leaving New Hampshire out to dry:
The plan has yet to be made final by the rules committee and the full DNC, but New Hampshire Democrats widely viewed the Iowa votes as a clear break from the decades-long alliance between the two states to work together to protect their early positions.
New Hampshire Democratic Chair Kathy Sullivan, herself a member of the DNC rules committee, said:
“There are a number of New Hampshire Democrats who are disappointed that the Iowa commissioners and member of the rules committee have not voted with New Hampshire on these things.”
Vilsack said he has not talked to the Iowans on these panels about it. One of them was Des Moines attorney Jerry Crawford, a big contributor to Vilsack’s Heartland PAC. The rules committee member is Sally Pederson, Vilsack’s own lieutenant governor and chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party.
Even more embarassing for Governor Vilsack, his wife was forced to wear ugly shoes while touring a plant in NH.
June 15th, 2006
The DNC has this post to its “blog” about its 50-state strategy. I know I’ve heard people talking about how great it is (and perhaps it really is a novel approach), but I wonder how far down it really goes. That is, will they be helping random campaigns for State Representative, or just high-profile campaigns like Governors, US Congressmen, etc.?
I guess we’ll find out how “grassroots” the plan really is this summer, which is also when we’ll find out how many states the DNC is really going to be pressing in. I know Iowa’s on the list somewhere, but is it really a top priority?
March 16th, 2006
