4th District Fundraising Less Than Promising For Dems

While most of the attention paid to Iowa fundraising numbers in the first quarter of this year went to the 3rd District primary, it’s worth noting that there is a Democratic primary in the 4th District too. However, the haul for Democrats there was much less promising. Two of the candidates, William Meyers and Kevin Miskell have not even filed reports with the FEC. This is a sign that they have either not raised enough money to need to file reports or they are too incompetent to get their information in on time. One suspects that the former is the case but no matter what the scenario, it does not mark them as promising candidates in the primary (let alone in a general election against a well-funded long-time incumbent).

Of the remaining two candidates, Kurt Meyer raised $130,000 but, of that sum, $100,000 came from Meyer himself. Of the remaining $30,000, there are two noteworthy donors. The Mitchell County Democratic Party gave Meyer $500 and 2006 Democratic nominee for the 4th District, Selden Spencer, gave $250. It is also worth noting that 85% of Meyer’s itemized donations came from out of state. However, Meyer ended the quarter with $108,000 cash on hand.

Becky Greenwald raised almost $24,000 although $3,500 of that sum came from her own pocket. Of the rest, almost half came from donors with the last name Garst. As Greenwald’s mother was married to a member of the Garst family, it’s not a surprise that she was able to take advantage of her familial connections for her campaign. In fact, one of the Garsts, Marilyn Garst of Coon Rapids, has already maxed out to Greenwald for both the primary and general elections. This means that nearly 10% of the money Greenwald raised in the quarter cannot be used in a primary. However, as Greenwald was holding a major fundraiser with Tom Vilsack after the end of the quarter, one suspects her fundraising will increase. But in the meantime, she ended the quarter with just over $20,000 on hand.

Both Greenwald and Meyer are strong candidates but it’s still unclear what the result of what will almost certainly be a sleepy, low-turnout primary will be. While Greenwald will stand out as the only woman on the ballot (and Meyer has a very similar last name to Meyers), there are also very competitive primaries in Mason City and Decorah, which will drive turnout in the northern part of the district. As Meyer is from Northern Iowa while Greenwald is from Dallas County, this may help him if voters base their decision on geography. But then again, most voters may not know who any of the congressional candidates even are, let alone where they are from.

7 comments April 16th, 2008

Interesting Trends In Candidate Filings

John Deeth has a rather exhaustive rundown of what candidates have filed for state and federal office this year in Iowa but it’s worth noting two interesting trends that have emerged so far and what ramifications this might have for the 2008 election.

The first is that three Democratic candidates have filed in the primary for House District 13. This is an open seat consisting almost entirely of Mason City and is heavily Democratic leaning, although it is currently held by Republican State Representative Bill Schickel who is not seeking re-election. The prospect of a heated Democratic Primary for this seat should pump up turnout which will have a big effect on the competitive Democratic primary for Iowa’s 4th congressional district. In 2006, where there was a competitive statewide primary but no competitive local primaries, turnout in Cerro Gordo made up about 7.5% of Democratic voters in the 4th district. However, with the competitive State House primary this year as well, it should lead to a disproportionate increase in turnout in Cerro Gordo County. This means that Mason City, which is the second largest municipality that is entirely in the 4th Congressional District, becomes even more important in the primary. This probably benefits the candidacy of Kurt Meyer the most as he comes from neighboring Mitchell County and is already seen as one of the more credible candidates in the race.

The second is that Democratic challengers have already filed in two State House seats that weren’t contested in 2006 or 2004 for that matter. James Van Bruggen has filed in ultra-conservative House District 4 which consists of Lyon County and part of Sioux County. The district is currently represented by incumbent Republican Dwayne Alons. While the district represents what is perhaps one of the most Republican state legislative seats in the country, let alone Iowa, (Chet Culver lost the district by a margin of almost 6 to 1) two slim slivers of hope for Van Bruggen are that Alons may be complacent as he has never faced an opponent in a general election in ten years in the legislature and has made some terribly embarrassing statements in recent years as well. In fact, Iowa Progress has commented numerous times on Alons’s frequent inane statements. These include claiming that the ancient Maya were a race of giants due to warmer temperatures and that the invention of air conditioning means that global warming is not a problem.

The other challenger is Ron Rossman, an organic farmer from outside Harlan, Iowa, who is running against Jack Drake in House District 57 which consists of Shelby County, most of Cass County and a thin slice of Pottawatomie County. It is a much less one-sided district than House District 4, Culver only lost the district by a 60-40 in 2006. However, if the race is solely about local issues, Rossman has a chance. While Drake is from the small sliver of Pottawatomie County that is in the district, Rossman hails from Shelby County which makes up over 40% of the district. If Rossman has a strong local base to build from, he has the capacity to run a competitive race.

Although neither of these seats are likely Democratic gains, it shows that Democrats may have a chance at running a candidate in close to every seat this year. In 2006, 19 House Republicans went unopposed, although few were in competitive districts. One of those House Republicans who went unopposed was Mary Lou Freeman. Freeman was a long time incumbent Republican from a safe district in Northwest Iowa. However, Freeman died two months before Election Day. If there had been a Democrat who had filed, the Democrat would have won automatically. Instead, the seat was declared vacant and in the special election that followed, the Republican candidate won handily, easily defeating his Democratic opponent who was a 21 year old college student.

The other benefit of running candidates in every seat is that it builds up party organization in areas that had previous been ceded to Republicans and helps build a stronger base of Democratic activists and to turn out more Democratic voters. In a year that seems to be trending Democratic so far, this could yield a surprise or two on Election Day.

2 comments March 3rd, 2008

Who Has The Power In The Iowa Caucuses?

The Iowa Caucuses aren’t democratic. In fact, they are so undemocratic, they make the Electoral College seem like a triumph for those who believe in “one man, one vote.” Caucusgoers aren’t voting for Obama, or Hillary or John Edwards. They vote for delegates to a county convention who then go on to vote for delegates to the State Convention who then go on to vote for delegates to the National Convention. Delegates are apportioned to each county and each precinct within the county by the combined number votes cast for the President and the Governor in the two previous General Elections. So, for example if more people in County X voted for the combination of John Kerry and Chet Culver in 2004 and 2006 than voted for the combination of Al Gore and Tom Vilsack in 2000 and 2002, County X will get more representation than it did in the 2004 caucuses. If less people voted for the top of the ticket, County X will get less representation. There are 3000 delegates at the State Convention and each county gets an appropriate share and the results for the caucuses are computed by factoring approximately what percent of the delegates a candidate will get at the State Convention. (Here are the 2004 results for an example)

So what has changed since 2004? Well of the big five counties in Iowa (Polk, Linn, Scott, Black Hawk and Johnson), all but Polk have gained delegates. In fact,  Johnson has shown the largest net gain of any county, going from 141 to 164 delegates. Linn also made a big leap from 228 to 242 delegates. Scott jumped from 161 to 170 and Black Hawk creeped up from 136 to 140. In contrast, Polk had a small dip of two delegates but still makes up nearly 15% of the total number of delegates with 428. The biggest leap in terms of perecentage was made by Jefferson County which is going from 13 to 18 delegates while the biggest fall in percentage was Ida County, which goes from 7 to a paltry 5 delegates. For us in Poweshiek County, we gained an extra delegate to go to 21. Statewide totals (which are rough because they haven’t been rounded) for 2008 are below the fold and the totals for 2004 can be found here.

3 comments January 18th, 2007

Kurt Cobain for Grundy County Attorney

Grundy County is the only county in that state that lists all of its write-in votes for every office. This includes a vote for Kurt Cobain for County Attorney (a post for which he was ineligible as he is not a member of the Iowa Bar) Drew has some fun with this but there’s a more serious lesson to be drawn from what isn’t listed.

What isn’t listed is the number of voters who were turned away from the polls because they weren’t registered to vote or weren’t registered to vote at that precinct or county. Even turning away one person damages our democracy. It’s absurd that anyone who wants to vote gets turned away. But it’s a by-product of our very flawed system of voter registration. Everytime that someone moves, they have to fill out a brand new form and if they haven’t filled out their form in time, they get disenfranchised. The result is a system that not only produces adminstrative issues at the polls like those we experienced in October but, more importantly, keeps people from voting. The one easy solution is same day registration, which allows someone to register and vote on the same day. Our neighbors in Minnesota and Wisconsin have this, as well as our early primary rival, New Hampshire. In fact, speaking of early primaries, you can register to vote when you show up at your precinct caucus in 2008, but you can’t do so for the General Election.

Hopefully, the State Legislature will take this issue up when it meets this month. One of the first orders of business for the new session is to remove impediments to absentee voting that the Republicans set up after the 2002 election.  With a Democratic majority in both Houses, it’s a rare opportunity to move forward and guarantee that every Iowan is able to vote in the future.

Add comment January 2nd, 2007

Clinton/Vilsack 2008?

The rumors are going around, and Vilsack is set to appear with Hillary in DC this week at a Democratic Governors Association press conference. Here’s how the Register reports it:

Some pundits as well as Democratic activists have suggested Vilsack would be a good fit on a ticket with Clinton as presidential nominee. Both are active in the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, and both have insisted they will not demand a specific date for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

A few days back, Hotline proposed some theories about the role Hillary could play in the race for the ‘08 Democratic nomination. Theory 1:

…unless she either doesn’t run or appears very vulnerable early on , one theory of the case holds that they will spend their time cozying up to her and tearing into each other. (Grover Norquist endorses that theory, too.) At least in part, they’ll try to use the primaries to audition for the general election.

To be clear: Bayh, Warner, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack — they all want to be president, not vice president. But they will almost certainly hedge their bets. They will not run a true-blue, rouse-the-base primary campaign.

Theory 2, however, simply says that Hillary is too polarizing a figure and won’t get anywhere. In that case, though, candidates might still stick to centrist rhetoric in an effort to distinguish themselves from Clinton (if the voters aren’t convinced by Hillary’s current centrist bent).

Frank Luntz’s piece today doesn’t talk much about this, but Luntz does attempt to lay out a strategy for Hillary to get elected. I’m really not sure a short, public essay could possibly prove useful to a presidential campaign, but here’s his first recommendation:

First, she must be herself. Her recent tack to the right - from equivocating on the Iraq war, to supporting a ban on flag burning - is fooling no one and is seriously agitating her liberal base. The reason Hillary became so popular in the first place was her unflinching willingness to tell it like it is. She must say what she means, and mean what she says.

Similarly, recent efforts by Clinton to inject religious references into her speeches to prove she’s a person of faith is like fingernails on a chalkboard to Democrat primary voters. Clinton must win the primary first - then worry about the general election. If Democrats really cared about religion, they’d be Republicans.

Will she? And is she really the vicious liberal that Luntz thinks she is in the first place? Perhaps, but it’s not looking like it right now.

I should also note that our coverage of 2008 contenders has been spotty of late. Our schedules haven’t permitted us to attend the candidates’ appearances across the state (which isn’t to say we don’t like getting the invitations, so thanks to the staffers who have kept us on their mailing lists…), so we’ve been reading Chris’s coverage on PoliticalForecast. We hope to get better as our schedules permit, but we still plan to spend more time analyzing the political issues facing Iowa than we’ll spend on national political celebrity watch.

And check out MyDD’s presidential straw poll, now reinstated.  Chris Bowers rightly discontinued it four months ago because of how repetitive the results were, but maybe things will be different now.

3 comments July 17th, 2006

Is Fallon Loyal To The Party?

Grinnell has a lot of people who support Ed Fallon’s gubernatorial bid. Yesterday, many went to volunteer at his campaign headquarters in Des Moines and got to know his friendly staff. They’re better organized than most campaigns, and — although they may be behind in fund raising — they have a lot more for volunteers to do at this point than other campaigns.

At least one volunteer expressed a little confusion, though, when he wasn’t able to tell a potential supporter whom he was calling that Ed Fallon will support whoever earns the Democratic nomination for governor in June. In fact, he was directed to give the ambiguous answer, “That’s a decision that’s still being talked about among the staff.”

What could this mean? Does Fallon think he’d have a shot running as a third party candidate in November (and would his chances be improved by all the volunteers who come in now, even though many will feel betrayed if he does that)? Or does his staff believe that he can’t commit to supporting the other democrats merely because he won’t look like he’s running to win anymore?

If it’s the second possibility, they’re wrong. Party loyalty (or, more notably, party disloyalty) can become a huge issue in Democratic primaries, and it can only hurt Fallon. After all, there are still a lot of people who remember when Fallon endorsed Nader instead of Gore in 2000 — who irrationally blame Fallon for Bush’s victory. Fallon needs to get out ahead of this immediately or he’ll lose a lot of supporters.

Update: This appears to have been resolved by a comment from one of his staff members.

10 comments April 9th, 2006

Meeting Report

Tonight, the Grinnell Campus Democrats met, and here’s what we discussed:

1. We’ll be holding satellite voting for the primaries 28 April.  We’re postering campus with issue grids for the gubernatorial candidates, and, if possible, democratic candidates for other offices.
2. We’re also coordinating volunteer opportunities from the campaigns.  We passed around signup sheets for volunteers that we’ll forward on to our contacts with the campaigns.
3. Campaigns are probably going to make stops on campus before our primaries.  We’ve heard back from both Blouin and Fallon, and we expect to hear from Culver, too.  It looks like Blouin will probably come on the evening of the 23rd.
4. Our blog (this site) is doing well, with a lot of visits every day.  The Fallon and Blouin campaigns have agreed to do interviews.  We might get promotional materials.
5. We have a lot of volunteer opportunities.  In particular, Eric Palmer’s new campaign manager (who seems impressive) is already looking for interns and volunteers for the summer.  (We already passed around the signup sheet.)  Danny Carroll, his opponent, likes to think that we’re hippy “East Coast Liberals” who are all pinko activists.  Let’s show him.
6. We’ll be hosting a GOTV workshop to make sure that we’re a well trained force for the party during this election season.  The date of it hasn’t been determined.
7. We passed around a signup sheet for students who will be around during the summer doing other things.  We’ll use the list to random requests for volunteers when extra people are needed.  And maybe for parties.
8. The administration might let us install a “Student Activism Center” in the new campus center.  There are planning meetings for the next two nights: 10:20PM in the Coffeehouse on Wednesday; 7PM in the North Lounge on Thursday.
9. And, finally, it looks like the father of a current student is running for governor of South Dakota.  We may have some opportunities to help that campaign, too.

Just a reminder: Grinnell College Campus Democrats’ meetings are intended to help us coordinate efforts to cause progressive change.  Anyone from the community who would like to raise a concern or promote a cause is welcome to attend on Tuesday nights at 7:30PM in the Forum Coffee House.  Email democrat@grinnell.edu if you’d like to join us.

1 comment April 4th, 2006

Democratic Party Diversifies Presidential Primaries

As the Des Moines Register reports, the Democratic Party has kept the Iowa Caucuses as the first primary contest for its presidential nomination, but it has shifted others around. It seems that they want to compensate for Iowa’s ethnic homogeneity by moving other states up closer to Iowa: “Contenders include Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada and South Carolina.” And this is apparently good news to Vilsack:

The additional primaries and caucuses could assist Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack should he decide to run for president, by giving him a chance to demonstrate that he has appeal in similar-size states. Vilsack would be expected to win the Iowa caucuses. Vilsack is scheduled to headline the premier Democratic Party banquet in South Carolina next month.

I guess Paul Begala will have to drive his CNN RV out here again after all.

1 comment March 13th, 2006