Search Results for ‘braley’
In Iowa’s First District, Republicans have nominated State Senator David Hartsuch to run against Bruce Braley. Although Hartsuch is an right wing extremist, he is relatively young and waged an energetic campaign to oust incumbent Republican State Senator Maggie Tinsman in 2006. This might initially lead one to think that Hartsuch is trying to wage a competitive campaign in a district that was represented by Republican Jim Nussle until 2006. However, based on the Hartsuch’s anemic fundraising, he isn’t even trying. According to Hartsuch’s FEC report, he has raised a whopping $5,000. However, Hartsuch’s campaign has been very frugal (as opposed to other long shot campaigns like that of Ed Fallon) and still has over $4000 on hand. With this type of fundraising, it’s clear Hartsuch is a sacrificial lamb and that Braley can breath easy this November. After all, incumbent congressmen have a very good track record against opponents who can’t raise enough money to pay for yard signs.
May 25th, 2008
Ed Fallon made his primary challenge official against Leonard Boswell today. As part of our continuing analysis of the race, it’s worth previewing one of Fallon’s likely attacks against Boswell. Fallon is a campaign finance reform fanatic and Boswell has taken a lot of money from political action committees. In fact, in the first three quarters of 2007, Boswell has taken in $433,000 in contributions from PACs, making up 75% of total contributions recieved. Much of the money is the result of a simple matter of timing. Leonard Boswell is a senior member of the House Agriculture Committee and this was the year that the Farm Bill came up for a renewal.
But Boswell received significant contributions from organized labor and fellow Democrats in the House. Boswell received, by Iowa Progress’s count, contributions from 17 different labor unions along with the AFL-CIO totaling $85,000. Boswell’s contributors run the full gamut of the American Labor Movement. Boswell took in contributions from unions ranging from SEIU and UNITE HERE to the Ironworkers and the Machinists. Boswell’s congressional support is just as broad. Boswell received support from 17 of his Congressional colleagues, along with support from DCCC and $9000 in contributions from Barack Obama’s PAC, Hopefund. Boswell’s contributions include Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. And while it’s not surprising that Boswell took in contributions from fellow “Blue Dog” Democrats like Alan Boyd and Mike McIntyre, Boswell also received support from leading liberals like Barney Frank and Jan Schakowsky and from fellow Iowa Congressman, Bruce Braley.
In contrast to his contributions from PACs, Boswell’s individual contributors overwhelmingly came from Iowa and over 86% of his individual contributors were Iowans. But what’s most interesting is the contrasts within his contributions. Boswell took in money both from the National Pork Producers Council and from the League of Conservation Voters. Not only that, Boswell is perhaps the only Congressman who took in contributions from the NRA and the Human Rights Campaign.
Leonard Boswell has a broad range of contributors, this stems from the fact that he is a Democratic congressman in a swing district who has a lot of seniority on a major committee. But at the core, Boswell has clear support from fellow Democrats and from labor unions. Although, while Fallon may see the initial appeal of attacking Boswell on PAC contributions, it might not profit him. After all, it doesn’t suit his message to remind Democratic voters that in a Congressional District that George W. Bush won, it might be helpful in a general election to have a Democrat who can boast the support of both Nancy Pelosi and the NRA.
January 9th, 2008
We recently did an overview of the top three opportunities for the Democrats to pick up seats in the Iowa State Senate in 2008. Now we’re going to take a look at the three most vulnerable seats that the Democrats have to defend. Although there are only ten Democrats in the State Senate up for re-election in 2008, many of them had close races in 2004 and will face fierce opposition from Republicans who have been pushing an agenda that would deny sick people the possibility of one day being cured, hurt working families and make it more difficult for Iowans to vote. Not exactly a popular combination, although unfortunately it will be a well funded one. Here are the three Democratic Senators who will have the toughest races in 2008:
1. Frank Wood (parts of Clinton and Scott Counties) In 2004, Wood defeated incumbent Republican State Senator Bryan Sievers in a race that was decided by less than 500 votes. Wood’s district comprises most of rural Scott and Clinton Counties and Republicans have an registration advantage of over 1,000 voters in the district. With this registration advantage, his district will be squarely targeted by the Republicans in 2008. His district also comprises the area represented by Elesha Gayman, who won an upset victory over her Republican opponent Jim Van Fossen in 2006, despite not being a targeted candidate. Gayman will have a major bulls eye on her back as Republicans need to win her seat to take back a majority in the Iowa House. The effort against her will help Wood’s Republican opponent as well. The GOP will also be building up its organization in Scott County after Chet Culver won the county by a tremendous margin of 9,000 votes. Even with a strong top of the ticket with Bruce Braley and Tom Harkin, Wood will face a very tough fight in this Republican-leaning district.
2. Tom Hancock (Jones and parts of Delaware and Dubuque Counties) In 2004, Tom Hancock defeated incumbent State Senator Julie Hosch by 122 votes. She had won the seat two years before by less than 500 votes. Hancock’s district comprises all of Jones County, along with rural Dubuque County and the parts of Delaware County that are south and east of Manchester. The district is very competitive, although Democrats have a registration advantage of 1,500 over the Republicans, over 40% of the voters are independents. However, Hancock will be running as an incumbent in 2008 and will have all the advantages of incumbency. Hancock won in 2004 despite running behind John Kerry in Delaware and Jones Counties and a very small advantage in the Democrats’ traditional strength of absentee ballots. Although this race will receive a lot of attention from both parties, a strong organization should put Hancock over the top in a neutral election climate. However, if there’s even a mild Republican lean in 2008, Hancock will be in trouble.
3. Tom Rielly (Keokuk and Poweshiek Counties, parts of Iowa, Mahaska and Tama Counties) Tom Rielly’s district is more Republican than that of any other Democratic State Senator up for election in 2008. However, Rielly has a solid base of support in otherwise heavily Republican Mahaska County (a county that is so Republican that Bill Clinton only received 40% of the vote there in 1996). Excluding absentee ballots, Rielly ran 10 points ahead of John Kerry in Mahaska County in 2004. Rielly also has the advantage of representing Grinnell, which is a strongly Democratic college town with very high student turnout. Poweshiek County, where Grinnell is located, is increasingly Democratic (it was one of three counties in Iowa that Bush won in 2000 and that John Kerry won in 2004). Rielly won the county by 700 votes in 2004 and should improve on that margin in 2008. The rest of the district comprises Keokuk County, which is slightly Republican leaning, though Rielly won it in 2004 and Iowa County (besides Marengo and the area immediately around it) which is a 50/50 county. Like Hancock, Rielly should be fine in a neutral climate but his big strength is a large number of ticket-splitters. If a candidate runs who can energize the Republican base, Rielly will have a hard fight. But if the rumors are true that someone like Danny Carroll will run, Rielly should be fine.
Other Democrats who will face highly competitive challenges in 2008 are: (in alphabetical order) Jeff Danielson (Black Hawk), Gene Fraise (Henry and Lee), Mike Gronstal (Pottawatomie) and Brian Schoenjahn (Buchanan and Clayton and parts of Black Hawk, Delaware and Fayette).
February 20th, 2007
In Iowa, presidential candidates are no doubt already scrambling for high-profile endorsements. Since Tom Harkin took the relatively safe route and endorsed the home team very early, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at our Democratic Congressmen in Iowa to see who they might pick.
Of course, the decision of whether to make an endorsement at all is relevant to the discussion. During the 2004 campaign, Leonard Boswell (IA-03) did not make any endorsement, instead remaining neutral and showing up at any major candidate’s campaign stops that he could get to for a bit of extra face time. This year, he might be planning to do the same. He already showed up at Hillary’s event in Des Moines:
Mrs. Clinton was introduced by Representative Leonard Boswell, who drew a huge ovation when he called her “a great first lady,” and then noted that the day had meaning for women in his family and, surely, many women in the audience.
I don’t blame Boswell for remaining neutral, because it may well be in his political interest. But with questions about whether he even plans to run for reelection, it remains to be seen whether he will pick a horse.
In 2004, Bruce Braley (IA-01) was an Edwards activist, as his biography on the DCCC’s site points out. Perhaps he will endorse the fellow trial lawyer again, but so far he seems not to have announced one way or the other. Getting elected to Congress can sometimes change your allegiances, after all.
Dave Loebsack (IA-02), somewhat predictably, was a Deaniac in 04. The bottom of his online CV at Cornell College notes that he was “one of the Linn County coordinators for Howard Dean for President,” and other sources tell us he was a precinct captain. (It’s also worth noting that Loebsack was a Bill Bradley activist in 2000, for whatever that’s worth.) Since Dean isn’t running again, of course, it isn’t clear how this will impact his decision this time around. Either way, if he endorses a candidate, it is likely that it will be someone on the left.
And while I could opine about how Steve King might endorse Tom Tancredo’s TEAM AMERICA, I’m certainly not an expert on such things, so I’ll leave it at the Democrats.
January 27th, 2007
The Quad City Times reported today that Republican attempts to smear Bruce Braley in the 2006 election did not work at all. Although Braley’s 12 point win provided strong circumstantial evidence to this effect, a recent poll showed that two thirds of all voters who had heard a lot about Bruce Braley being a “greedy trial lawyer” still supported him over Mike Whalen on issues like the economy and health care. The same percentage thought that the attack ads against Braley that claimed his “ ‘lawsuit abuse’ made things worse for expectant mothers” were unfair as well. The Republicans slung a lot of mud during the last election and it’s reassuring to know that all their smears directed against Bruce Braley, as well as Leonard Boswell and other Democratic candidates across the country, didn’t work.
January 26th, 2007
In an interview with Hotline today, Nick Ryan, campaign manager for Jim Nussle’s losing gubernatorial bid, said:
“Looking at central and eastern Iowa — I think Republicans can be encouraged that the right candidates CAN win there. Absent the 2006 wave, both congressional seats in eastern Iowa were held by Republicans — by two very good, effective congressmen (Nussle and Leach).”
I think Ryan meant to say that the right candidates COULD HAVE won there (note: the word “can” was capitalized by Hotline). Nussle and Leach had been congressmen for 15 and 30 years, respectively. They had built up a high enough level of trust that people could overlook their Republican flaws. Now that Democrats are in control, the GOP won’t be able to build up a sense of loyalty, which was really the only thing keeping them alive in these solidly blue districts. The first and second CDs went for both Gore and Kerry (and perhaps Clinton but I can’t navigate that darn Secretary of State’s website very well). Unless Braley or Loebsack make a huge mistake, I think it will be a very long time before any Republican can retake either of those seats.
But Ryan’s not dumb — you should check out the whole thing, in which he discusses, among other things, whether Harkin can be beat and who are the rising IA stars from both parties.
December 20th, 2006
As we dive deeper into the 21st century, the intersection of technology and politics becomes more and more apparent. If the last election featured Meetups and the emergence of the blogosphere, 2006 could be the year of social networking. According to the National Journal, both parties have created their own unique sites, and the number of politicians on MySpace and Facebook has skyrocketed as politicians try to harness the power of young people.
So who is harnessing this power? Facebook has the answer.
A tool called Election Pulse (login might be required) allows us to see which candidates Facebook users have endorsed. Here’e the rundown:
Gubernatorial race: Culver leads Nussle 52 to 42 percent.
CD 1: Braley leads Whalen 55 to 45 percent.
CD 2: Leach leads Loebsack 57 to 43 percent.
CD 3: Boswell leads Lamberti 74 to 26 percent.
CD 4: Latham leads Spencer 57 to 43 percent.
CD 5: King leads Schulte 68 to 27 percent.
So what does it all mean? Well, if you compare recent polls, it seems that Facebook users (basically college students) have similar opinions to the rest of the state’s residents — with the exception of the 3rd CD (and the gubernatorial race to a lesser extent which polls show is closer). Boswell is destroying Lamberti among Facebook users. Young people in the 3rd CD (including Grinnellians) and across the country have responded overwhemlingly to this farmer from Southern Iowa. If college students turn out for Boswell at the actual — rather than virtual — polls at this rate, Lamberti can kiss his chances of winning goodbye.
September 26th, 2006
Via the Des Moines Register, we learn that the Iowa Farm Bureau has announced its “2006 Friends of Agriculture.” So who made it on to the illustrious list? Gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle, secretary of agriculture candidate Bill Northey, congressional candidates Mike Whalen and Jeff Lamberti, and U.S. Representatives Tom Latham and Steve King. Hmm, I can’t put my finger on it, but there’s something similar about all those guys. What is it? What could it be? Oh yes: they’re all Republicans.
(The group declined to endorse either candidate in the second congressional district but I guess that’s a win for the Dems.)
The Register waits until the last paragraph to remind readers that the bureau is “a Republican-leaning group that supports measures to restrict taxes,” but at least they did so at all. Context matters, especially in the case of innocuous sounding names. Without context, Americans might be fooled into believing some boating group that wanted swift truth or something was actually a surrogate for the Bush campaign. Nah, that would never happen.
The only person who may be surprised by the Bureau’s endorsements is Leonard Boswell — or at least his web designer. According to Boswell’s webpage, he’s garnered the Bureau’s endorsement “every time he’s run for office.” Not anymore, Boz. Not anymore.
UPDATE: The Congressman’s webpage has since been changed to remove the now-false sentence. Kudos for the quick response. And as an aside, I wouldn’t worry much about not getting the endorsement. It looks like Boswell is doing just fine.
September 12th, 2006
We can’t afford complacency, but things are looking good. Chris at MyDD has posted a huge list of relatively recent public poll numbers in competitive house races across the country. Among the results: Braley leads Whalen, 54-41; and Boswell leads Lamberti, 54-43.
I guess that’s why we’re already hearing rumblings from the GOP’s trademark voter suppression machine.
September 6th, 2006
The Register today made its endorsements for competitive primary races. For Governor, they like Blouin:
He has the richest breadth of experience among the three, in both public and private sectors. He has a depth of understanding gained from decades of working directly with Iowa’s people and problems. He has the confidence to tell Iowans some uncomfortable truths, and the wisdom to propose responses that are both practical and promising.
For the 5th Congressional District, they pick Schulte:
She’s running again because she wants to bring change to Congress. She’s the best candidate to do that, as someone who is connected to her community and recognizes the challenges typical families face.
And for the 1st Congressional District, it’s Braley:
He is a fresh face on the political scene with a law degree, children still at home and an appreciation for the congressional responsibility to uphold the U.S. Constitution.
That was what distinguished him from other candidates during a recent meeting with Register editors and writers.
Of the endorsements, it’s only Schulte’s that gave me much pause. Not that I don’t like Schulte, but her endorsement read more like a personal narrative than a political endorsement, and I sort of saw Bob Chambers as the type of candidate the Register might get behind. I guess I was wrong.
May 28th, 2006
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