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You’ve all seen the movie, but now Forbes Magazine is here to tell us what Kevin Costner knew way back in 1989: It’s Iowa. Well actually, according to Forbes’s new list, The Best States for Business, Iowa is a pretty great place to live, but maybe not so heavenly for businesses.
By the numbers Iowa was ranked the 1st in quality of life (looking at “index of schools, health, crime, cost of living and poverty rates”), but 25th overall. This is probably due to its low, low ranking of 47th in labor (”educational attainment, net migration and projected population growth”), beating out only West Virginia, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Iowa also fell below the half-way mark in economic climate and growth prospects, scoring 31 and 41, respectively.
This brings up some issues looming large in the gubernatorial campaign such as how to get people to come to Iowa and stay in Iowa once they’ve received their diplomas. This is apparent in all of the major campaign topics–education, health care, and the economy. Forbes may think that Iowa is a great place to live, but not a lot of young people stay here after graduation. Back in April I remember Andy McGuire asking me and a few other Grinnell College Democrats what it would take for us to stay here after graduation–something none of us were planning on doing. We liked the sound of bridge health insurance and, you know, good jobs. Although I think a friend of mine wanted a major league sports team as well.
The Blouin-McGuire ticket was not the only one that realized this problem, of course. Culver’s website provides this tidbit:
We can do even better by building on, rather than disinvesting in, our higher ed institutions, so that more students stay in Iowa after graduation and, along with their faculties, help to build the research and manufacturing spin-offs that higher ed has generated for economies elsewhere. My plan will expand investments in colleges across Iowa, including creating Centers of Excellence at each of our public colleges and universities so that each can become a generator of world-class new businesses and economic activity, and better integrate all facets of higher ed with business.
Nussle, on the other hand, says he wants to “empower parents to be more involved in their children’s education,” which sounds like a euphamism for school voucher, something he has consistently supported in the past for private and parochial schools. I guess Nussle isn’t too excited about public schools, or the constitution for that matter, considering he has also voted to allow prayer in schools and also voted in 1994 to only give federal aid to schools that allowed voluntary prayer. I guess that is why the NEA rated him 17% on public education.
August 30th, 2006
There’s been a fairly heated debate raging today over at Political Forecast about whether Culver has placed undo stress on choice during the campaign, and it seems people in the Iowa blogosphere aren’t the only ones to have noted how the navigation of this sticky issue has changed in state races.
The New York Times highlights our very own gubernatorial race as an example of how South Dakota has changed choice in state races. Instead of questions about how to regulate abortions, candidates are now faced with a binary choice: ban or no? This places candidates like Blouin, who are personally pro-life but oppose a ban, in an awkward position. How does one articulate a nuanced position on a hot-button issue without committing an “I supported abortion before I was against it” misstep? (That was meant to be rhetorical, but I reckon picking a pro-choice female doctor as a running mate and letting her answer the question is one method of assuaging people’s fears!)
The article also points out that no one really knows how this issue will play out. Some pro-lifers are against ban proposals because they don’t see them as a pragmatic approach to eliminating abortion, and worry that they will call pro-choicers to action (well duh!). Perhaps the Nussle folks are worried about this too, as Nussle declined an interview with the Times, and his spokesperson noted that he has not publicly stated whether he would support a ban. On the other hand, he may just be standing aside to let the Dems pick each other apart—a strategy that has obviously been working.
June 5th, 2006
The Des Moines Register released a poll today that was conducted May 29-June 1, so I imagine this will be the last numbers we get before Tuesday. Here’s how it breaks down:
Culver 36% - Blouin 28% - Fallon 21% - Mohammed 1% - 14% undecided
It doesn’t look like the survey questions created the alleged “Fallon supporters don’t fit the likely voters criteria” effect, but with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points and a huge chunk of undecideds, a convention decision is becoming more and more likely. I wish Drew’s blog was still around so we could review what the delegate break down would be.
The article accompanying the poll does a surprisingly good job of highlighting and analyzing the things each candidate has going for him: Blouin is counting on union organizers for his GOTV, but according to the poll Culver has more support amongst union families. Fallon claims independents and Republicans will jump ship and vote in the Democratic primary, but the poll also says Blouin and Culver have picked up more outside the party support. Culver has garnered the most youth support, but people over 64 are much more likely to turn out. The article also does a nice job of interviewing supporters who sum up the main issues of the campaign, but you can read that for yourself.
Finally, the poll also asked if people wanted to continue with the direction and priorities for the state set by Governor Vilsack. A whopping 50% said no! I definitely wouldn’t want to commence my bid for the presidency with that kind of sentiment a brewin’, but that’s just me.
All in all, I think this quote from a Fallon press release sums it up best: “‘We’ll find out on election day,’ he said while eating a sandwich.”
p.s. The coverage of Mike Blouin’s bus tour on his website actually resembles a blog! After months and months of campaigning and claiming to be tech savvy and “hip”, someone has finally grasped that “blog” is more than a buzz word! I bet Andy McGuire had something to do with this. (She told us she’s addicted to blogs.)
June 4th, 2006
Fallon is in Marshalltown today, campaigning there for the last time before the election. He commented on his opponents’ endorsements saying,
My campaign has never been about media endorsements,” he said. “Even though I don’t have many endorsements from the labor unions, but many rank-and-file members supporting me.
It’s sort of funny that that’s the first quote in the Times-Republican article, since Fallon received his first batch of legislative endorsements yesterday.
Reflecting on the campaign at this point, Fallon said “I can’t say I’m going to win, but I’m confident it will be competitive.” On his supporters, he added, “I’m giving them a reason to vote,” he said. “I feel a lot of people have lost hope in the political process. I’m giving them a reason to hope.”
If the Fallon campaign has toyed with the idea of endorsing Blouin, I would imagine that sort of quote indicates where Fallon stands. (Just speculation.)
On an unrelated note, George Pataki visited Iowa yesterday and agreed to hold a fundraiser for Jeff Lamberti in New York next month. Here’s where the Boswell-Lamberti thermometer stands as of May 17. (Boxer money yet to come.)
June 1st, 2006
Well, we’re about a week out and things are starting to get crazy. If I were Chet Culver, I’d be feeling a little nervous. Though his website touts an eight-point lead over Nussle and claims no one else can beat him, I’m a little skeptical of this as a reason to vote for Culver.
First of all, I think we’re going to beat Nussle in the fall. Period.
Secondly, Blouin and Fallon have really made tremendous gains, which shouldn’t be taken lightly. Blouin has proved his vast experience in public service make him extremely qualified, and his colleagues sure seem to recognize it. Fallon has managed to overcome his ”cooky” image and appeal to the independent-minded and party-faithful alike, building a huge, old school grassroots network.
Thirdly, Chet Culver really just doesn’t stand out to me. I can look back at the campaign season and see how the other campaigns have grown and evolved, but Culver seems to just be the “I’m ahead in the polls” guy. We’ve all heard the jokes (often cruelly cutting and quite likely bad for everyone come June 7th) that maybe Culver isn’t the smartest crayon in the box, but to me it’s something else. Politicians should not only represent the people, they should also educate them. When has Culver raised the level of discourse?
May 31st, 2006
The Register today made its endorsements for competitive primary races. For Governor, they like Blouin:
He has the richest breadth of experience among the three, in both public and private sectors. He has a depth of understanding gained from decades of working directly with Iowa’s people and problems. He has the confidence to tell Iowans some uncomfortable truths, and the wisdom to propose responses that are both practical and promising.
For the 5th Congressional District, they pick Schulte:
She’s running again because she wants to bring change to Congress. She’s the best candidate to do that, as someone who is connected to her community and recognizes the challenges typical families face.
And for the 1st Congressional District, it’s Braley:
He is a fresh face on the political scene with a law degree, children still at home and an appreciation for the congressional responsibility to uphold the U.S. Constitution.
That was what distinguished him from other candidates during a recent meeting with Register editors and writers.
Of the endorsements, it’s only Schulte’s that gave me much pause. Not that I don’t like Schulte, but her endorsement read more like a personal narrative than a political endorsement, and I sort of saw Bob Chambers as the type of candidate the Register might get behind. I guess I was wrong.
May 28th, 2006
I don’t know how many newspapers are planning to endorse Democratic primary candidates (I haven’t caught any others so far, and I know it’s sort of uncommon to endorse candidates in a party primary), but today the Iowa City Press-Citizen endorsed Fallon:
Rather than being dismissed as a mere leftist, Fallon’s commitment to individual freedom weaves in and out of partisan labels. His grassroots support could bring a surprise on June 6, and we believe he engages in the type of politics that we would like to see more of.
But more than that, they go candidate-by-candidate in a way that seems to provide a list of preferences: (3) Culver, (2) Blouin, and (1) Fallon.
We have toyed with the idea of endorsing a candidate (or candidates, if we do it individually) here, but I don’t know if any of us feels like it would really help in the long run.
After reading that endorsement, though, I might try to do something on my own in the days before I have to skip out (when I start work with the party in June). If a tree falls in the forest…
May 28th, 2006
As we draw closer to June 6th, primary day, Culver and Blouin continue to exchange accusations. Culver is now trying to paint Blouin with the same pro-Big Business, anti-farmer brush that Blouin, in his a TV ad spot, was able to color Culver with. It goes like this: first Blouin says that Culver worked as a paid lobbyist for a giant meat-packing firm. Then Culver does the classic I’m-rubber-and-you’re-glue counter by saying that actually it is Blouin who has promoted meat-packing interests in the state.
Earlier this week Culver, in his first attack ad, criticized Blouin for being against stem cell research. Then Blouin responded by saying that he would support a change in the stem cell law, a reversal on the position he held last year.
Fallon is getting marginalized even as he maintains the ‘higher ground.’ He has called for all of the candidates to run a positive campaign, but that is easy to do when no one is attacking him because he is not seen as a credible opponent. But I think Fallon is right. This is only the primary and we seem to be getting pretty heated here. Long about June 7th it seems like the Democrats might begin regretting these nasty campaign ads when Nussle drags out his war chest and begins buying up all of TV ad time he can get his hands on. After the primary it might be difficult if Culver or Blouin has to suck it up and endorse the other one, but that is what we are going to need to beat Nussle in November. Maybe it isn’t unprecedented to have negative primaries, but it seems like they are losing track of what really matters.
May 26th, 2006
Political Forecast has a post on Mike Blouin running negative TV ads against Culver. The buzz around the ads is that they are ineffective and make Blouin look desperate. I agree—this sure doesn’t seem like a frontrunner’s tactic. Then again, does Blouin look any worse than Culver’s petty jabs during the debates? Remember the “flip-flop” comment?
So let’s not pretend this is the first shot, or that Culver doesn’t have a mud trebuchet himself.
When Blouin visited Grinnell a few weeks ago, he went out of his way to stress that he would never run negative ads, but that he would “defend himself” if necessary. Sadly, he’s gone back on his pledge and stooped low. Too bad Culver was already there.
Of course, there’s still one spotless candidate—Fallon. Unfortunately, he’s wearing that stupid, stupid, hat.
May 18th, 2006
This week has been busy for many members of Campus Democrats. Fallon and Blouin visited last week, we produced a podcast, we conducted interviews with campaign staffers, we set up a pretty ambitious GOTV/voter reg. strategy for tomorrow, and we tried to coordinate visits from all three campaigns. All of our events are open to the public, so please feel free to show up; and, if you’re a Poweshiek County resident, register and vote! (All county residents who are U.S. citizens are allowed to register and to vote at our Satellite Voting station.) The polls are open from 9 to 4.
Here’s the schedule of candidate visits:
The candidates are coming rain or shine, so if weather gets bad we’ll have new locations for the outdoor events nearby. And if you’d like to volunteer to help coordinate things, meet the Campus Dems representatives outside ARH; someone will be there for most of the day.
Campaign interviews with representatives of the Fallon and Culver campaigns will be up over the next 24 hours.
April 27th, 2006
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