Search Results for ‘absentee ballots’
More than a week after the primary, it’s time to put Leonard Boswell’s victory over Ed Fallon into perspective. While the Fallon campaign is claiming “a partial victory,” the facts don’t bear out the silver lining that Fallon is trying to discern from his defeat. (Although after such a devastating loss, one certainly can understand while Fallon is looking for a silver lining). Fallon seems to think that his primarying Boswell was the reason Leonard Boswell’s voting record suddenly improved in 2007. However, Fallon didn’t have anything to do with it. Nancy Pelosi did. Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives meant that Republicans weren’t able to bring bills up that would place Democrats in swing districts like Boswell in tough positions. Once they weren’t and once Democrats had a governing majority in the House, Boswell was able to take better votes even though he still represents a district that George Bush won in 2004. Boswell supported a lot of progressive bills before Fallon declared his candidacy, during the campaign and will continue to do so now. Fallon’s claims otherwise are just attempts to justify his defeat and find a partial victory in a 22 point loss.
In terms of Iowa politics, it’s pretty clear Ed Fallon’s political career is over. Although Fallon had pockets of strength in North and West sides of Des Moines, Fallon still wasn’t able to win his former House District, HD 66 and was throughly trounced in the rural areas by margins not seen in a federal election in Iowa since Art Small was beat by Chuck Grassley. Despite Fallon’s much vaunted army of volunteers, his field efforts proved poor as turnout was low in his base precincts and he lost absentee ballots in Polk County by a nearly 3 to 1 margin (and by even more lopsided margins outside Polk County). In addition, Fallon is now bogged down by $35,000 in campaign debt, in addition to the $21,000 of debt still listed on his gubernatorial campaign account. If Fallon had won, or even lost narrowly, he might have had a strong claim to political credibility. Instead, he is firmly a niche candidate, one popular in Sherman Hill and among the Volvo drivers South of Grand but not anywhere else.
Boswell’s left flank is once again totally secure. Having easily fended off Fallon’s challenge, it seems clear he will be the Democratic nominee for Congress until he doesn’t want to be. However, Boswell, in the past few cycles, has proven to be much more vulnerable in off year elections than in Presidential years. While he should be able fend off Kim Schmett successfully, Boswell certainly be an NRCC target once again in 2010.
Polk County politics should also change too. The failure of the Fallon’s base to turn out shows the continued impotences of his limousine liberal base in local Democratic politics. The power in the Polk County Democratic Party will continue to reside on the southern banks of the Des Moines River for the near future.
In short, almost nothing has changed as a result of Fallon’s congressional run. Leonard Boswell is just as liberal as he was before and just as secure as the Democratic nominee as he was before. The balance of power has not changed in Polk County politics or on Capitol Hill. The only difference is that Ed Fallon has thrown his political career away in a quixotic challenge against a relatively progressive Democrat in a swing district and only has a debt of $35,000 to show for it.
June 12th, 2008
Ed Fallon attacked a mailing by Leonard Boswell today that criticized Fallon for his support of Ralph Nader as “very cynical [and] very deceptive” today. Iowa Progress has previously addressed Fallon’s support for Nader, including his statement that “I can’t, I won’t and you shouldn’t [vote for Al Gore] either” in a speech that was reproduced nationally. As a result of the strong Nader organizing in Iowa, in which Ed Fallon was actively involved, the Gore campaign had to devote a disproportionate amount of resources to a state that Michael Dukakis won handily in 1988 and that Bill Clinton won twice. Gore even was in Iowa the day before the election in 2000. If Al Gore instead could have paid an extra visit to Florida or was able to run a few more ads there, it certainly would have shifted 500 votes and changed history.
But the larger issue is that while Fallon has no compulsion about attacking Boswell (and implying that reporting on subjects like I’M For Iowa done by independent reporters like Chase Martyn and Tom Beaumont comes from the Boswell press office). In fact, Fallon’s website is flush with cynical and deceptive statements such as “Boswell is bought and paid for by special interests,” Boswell “practices ‘the politics of deception,’” “Boswell…betrays American and Iowa values.’ In fact, Fallon’s attacks on Boswell go back to 2006 when Boswell was one of three most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country. Fallon sent out an email then calling Boswell’s campaign “offensive” and attacking him for “name calling, record-distorting and fear mongering.” Fallon did this a week before absentee ballots were sent out in 2006. However, this attack did show how Fallon’s sense of party loyalty improved since 2000. He only attacked a fellow Democrat in a tight election, rather than openly campaigning against him as well. Frankly, it seems Ed Fallon’s real complaint is that his fiscal irresponsibility keeps him from having any money to spend on paid media as even the Politico points out.
Fallon is running in a Democratic primary as someone with a history of disloyalty, dishonesty and sleaze if he can’t handle that being pointed out now, one can only imagine what the Republicans would do to him in a general election.
April 23rd, 2008
We recently did an overview of the top three opportunities for the Democrats to pick up seats in the Iowa State Senate in 2008. Now we’re going to take a look at the three most vulnerable seats that the Democrats have to defend. Although there are only ten Democrats in the State Senate up for re-election in 2008, many of them had close races in 2004 and will face fierce opposition from Republicans who have been pushing an agenda that would deny sick people the possibility of one day being cured, hurt working families and make it more difficult for Iowans to vote. Not exactly a popular combination, although unfortunately it will be a well funded one. Here are the three Democratic Senators who will have the toughest races in 2008:
1. Frank Wood (parts of Clinton and Scott Counties) In 2004, Wood defeated incumbent Republican State Senator Bryan Sievers in a race that was decided by less than 500 votes. Wood’s district comprises most of rural Scott and Clinton Counties and Republicans have an registration advantage of over 1,000 voters in the district. With this registration advantage, his district will be squarely targeted by the Republicans in 2008. His district also comprises the area represented by Elesha Gayman, who won an upset victory over her Republican opponent Jim Van Fossen in 2006, despite not being a targeted candidate. Gayman will have a major bulls eye on her back as Republicans need to win her seat to take back a majority in the Iowa House. The effort against her will help Wood’s Republican opponent as well. The GOP will also be building up its organization in Scott County after Chet Culver won the county by a tremendous margin of 9,000 votes. Even with a strong top of the ticket with Bruce Braley and Tom Harkin, Wood will face a very tough fight in this Republican-leaning district.
2. Tom Hancock (Jones and parts of Delaware and Dubuque Counties) In 2004, Tom Hancock defeated incumbent State Senator Julie Hosch by 122 votes. She had won the seat two years before by less than 500 votes. Hancock’s district comprises all of Jones County, along with rural Dubuque County and the parts of Delaware County that are south and east of Manchester. The district is very competitive, although Democrats have a registration advantage of 1,500 over the Republicans, over 40% of the voters are independents. However, Hancock will be running as an incumbent in 2008 and will have all the advantages of incumbency. Hancock won in 2004 despite running behind John Kerry in Delaware and Jones Counties and a very small advantage in the Democrats’ traditional strength of absentee ballots. Although this race will receive a lot of attention from both parties, a strong organization should put Hancock over the top in a neutral election climate. However, if there’s even a mild Republican lean in 2008, Hancock will be in trouble.
3. Tom Rielly (Keokuk and Poweshiek Counties, parts of Iowa, Mahaska and Tama Counties) Tom Rielly’s district is more Republican than that of any other Democratic State Senator up for election in 2008. However, Rielly has a solid base of support in otherwise heavily Republican Mahaska County (a county that is so Republican that Bill Clinton only received 40% of the vote there in 1996). Excluding absentee ballots, Rielly ran 10 points ahead of John Kerry in Mahaska County in 2004. Rielly also has the advantage of representing Grinnell, which is a strongly Democratic college town with very high student turnout. Poweshiek County, where Grinnell is located, is increasingly Democratic (it was one of three counties in Iowa that Bush won in 2000 and that John Kerry won in 2004). Rielly won the county by 700 votes in 2004 and should improve on that margin in 2008. The rest of the district comprises Keokuk County, which is slightly Republican leaning, though Rielly won it in 2004 and Iowa County (besides Marengo and the area immediately around it) which is a 50/50 county. Like Hancock, Rielly should be fine in a neutral climate but his big strength is a large number of ticket-splitters. If a candidate runs who can energize the Republican base, Rielly will have a hard fight. But if the rumors are true that someone like Danny Carroll will run, Rielly should be fine.
Other Democrats who will face highly competitive challenges in 2008 are: (in alphabetical order) Jeff Danielson (Black Hawk), Gene Fraise (Henry and Lee), Mike Gronstal (Pottawatomie) and Brian Schoenjahn (Buchanan and Clayton and parts of Black Hawk, Delaware and Fayette).
February 20th, 2007
Where does the Red Flag wave highest in Iowa? According to the results of the last election, it’s in Ladora, Iowa where Helen Meyers, the candidate of the Socialist Workers Party received 5% of the vote. I know you’re thinking two things. First, that the Socialist Workers Party isn’t Socialist at all, instead it’s a Trotskyite group that adheres to the Pathfinder Tendency and second, Ladora, Iowa? Ignoring the first point as niggling (after all, Ladora, Iowa, Stronghold of Trotskyism isn’t a very good headline), why Ladora? Well, Iowa County itself was Helen Meyers’ strongest county in 2006, she pulled over 3% of vote? But what made Ladora particularly Socialist or rather Trotskyite. Looking at the results, the clear and unexciting answer is a mathmatical fluke. After all, 10 votes out of 207 isn’t terribly statistically significant. But it’s worth noting that Meyers did much better in the rural areas than in Polk County (Des Moines). She got 2% outside of Polk and 1.3% in Polk. Although Boswell’s a relatively moderate Democrat, the 3% obviously wasn’t a liberal protest vote. If there was such a thing, it wouldn’t have been in Iowa County which isn’t that liberal, it would have been in Polk, which contains some of the most liberal parts of the 3rd District. So what’s going on?
The answer as best I can piece together is pretty simple. There was a decent number of people in rural areas tired of what was happening in Washington who didn’t want to vote for an incumbent-even a Democratic one-but sure didn’t want to vote for Jeff Lamberti. So, instead, they voted randomly for the Socialist candidate at the spur of the moment. (It’s noteworthy that Meyers did significantly better on Election Day than on absentee ballots) It wasn’t a lot of people but enough to be noticed. I suppose this is probably bad news for those who looked forward to Ladora being the cradle for Iowa’s dictatorship of the proletariat but, not to worry, Helen Meyers didn’t do too badly in North English either.
January 23rd, 2007
You might have noticed that a few weeks ago I stopped posting to this site very often, and it might have reminded you of the time I stopped blogging for several months to work for the IDP during the general election. Well, I have been doing campaign work again, this time over in Dallas County, on Democrat Dan Brickner’s campaign for Sheriff.
Tomorrow is election day there, and Dallas County voters will have the opportunity to elect a replacement for former Sheriff Brian Gilbert, who was forced to resign after “allegedly” stealing $120,000 from a drug bust. We have also learned since then that there were a lot of other problems in the department, as indicated by this report by the state auditor (big PDF). The report is fun to read, unless you depend on the Dallas County Sheriff to protect you and your family. Then it’s pretty scary.
Dan has 28 years of law enforcement experience, and has spent 20 years as police chief in Albia and then in Perry. He has overseen a large budget, and he has managed a large staff. His opponent has never managed a department with more than one full-time employee, and has ties to the current Sheriff’s department. Dan has no personal connections to the department, so he’ll come in without any favors to pay back or friends to protect. In this race, it is black and white: Dan is the only candidate with the experience and the integrity to fix what needs to be fixed, and I knew it within five minutes of meeting him.
If you live in Dallas County (and that includes much of West Des Moines and Urbandale, among other more rural communities and small towns), please don’t forget to make it to the polls. The Brickner campaign has a significant lead in absentee ballots, but the cliche still holds true: every vote counts.
So tomorrow, get out and vote for Dan Brickner if you’re in Dallas County. Thanks.
January 22nd, 2007
I’d like to begin this rant with a quote from Iowa Republican Party spokeswoman Sarah Sauber:
“Voters are looking for fresh, new ideas to bring change rather than the old policies you get from Democrats”
What? The last time America got any significant policies from Democrats, the country was peaceful, prosperous, and had a balanced budget.
Speaking of old policies, though, there’s an interesting piece in Wednesday’s Washington Post. The World Economic Forum has dropped America’s economic competitive ranking from 1 to 6. Business taxes are at their lowest level in decades, regulations of just about everything have been rolled back, “frivolous” lawsuits have been reigned in, and pensions have gone out the window - everything Republicans have been pushing for has been done, and it ain’t working.
So there.
By the way, early voting began in Iowa Thursday, and Democrats - wait for it - are in the lead. The Des Moines Register reports that, as of Wednesday, Republicans trailed Democrats 11,000 to 50,000 in absentee ballots requested.
September 28th, 2006
As if you needed reminding, don’t forget to vote by 9PM today!
The Register says thus far it’s been low turnout and fewer than expected absentee ballots have been collected, with the exception of Dubuque.
They also say there have been some minor problems with the voting machines, but nothing too worrisome.
We’ll see tonight!
June 6th, 2006
