After Sam Brownback dropped out last week, speculation immediately started as to which candidate the prominent social conservative would support. It was generally assumed that Brownback would lend his endorsement to a candidate shared his socially conservative views. However, as the Politico reports, Rudy Giuliani, who is pro-choice and pro gay rights, has been courting Brownback. While Brownback is not giving it up on the first date, he said he was “much more comfortable” with Giuliani’s position on abortion and gave Giuliani a chaste kiss on the cheek, describing him as a “wonderful candidate.”
If Giuliani gets the Republican nomination, he will need to have a prominent social conservative on the ticket to keep the right wing of the Republican Party happy. Prominent religious fundamentalists and extremists like James Dobson have declared that they would never vote for Giuliani, although at this stage, it’s just posturing. Giuliani would to do everything he could to appease them and have a Vice Presidential nominee would perform that task. It would be a role that Brownback would be perfectly suited for. That is why Brownback is meeting with Giuliani and making such a public display of it. Giuliani is the only candidate who needs Brownback and would put him on the ticket. (After all, Kansas isn’t a swing state). Brownback is a failed Presidential candidate who knows what he wants and is not afraid to go get it.
Iowa City is holding a referendum on November 6 over whether to continue to allow people aged 19 and 20 to visit bars. Opponents of underage drinking are fighting to pass the referendum, underaged drinkers, specifically University of Iowa students, are getting mobilized to oppose it (as is every bar owner within a mile of the Ped Mall.) Since this is in Iowa, there has already been an obligatory piece wondering about the effect this might have in the caucuses. In an article on Slate, Christopher Beam seems to think that this is good for Barack Obama because students will be registered in time for the caucuses. Beam neglects the two important facts. First and most importantly, Beam doesn’t realize that you can register at the caucuses. In addition, Beam neglects the fact that none of the students will actually be in Iowa City on caucus night and thus the fact that they are registered there is almost totally irrelevant.
However, this does have one small effect for the caucuses. A voter registration form captures a lot of important information including address, telephone number and sometimes email. Provided that this information is added to the voter file, the Obama campaign (and all other caucus campaigns) will be able to contact hundreds more students than they would before (as they would have no way to contact them as they weren’t registered voters). It doesn’t mean that any of the newly registered students will show up for the caucuses either in Iowa City or in their hometown but it is now a lot more likely that a campaign will ask these newly registered students to show up to the caucuses. It helps Obama slightly (presuming that he is the default student candidate in Iowa City) but it is doubtful whether it will help him net more than a handful of extra caucusgoers on caucus night.
Via Yglesias: Mitt Romney shows a modicum of reason when discussing the cost of higher education and immediately gets pounced on by a goon at Cato. What did Mitt say to warrant the ire of the wingnuts?
“I like the idea of linking the level of support that we’re able to provide to young people going to college to the contributions they’re going to make to our society,” Romney told more than 200 people at an event at a Davenport hotel, one of three stops in the state Wednesday.
College costs need to be lowered for everyone. But creating extra-incentives for, say, some of out best physics students to enter teaching by offering loan forgiveness if they teach high school physics is an idea worth considering. You would think a party ostensibly obsessed with maintaining America’s competitiveness would be interested in encouraging higher education. Instead, we find Republicans laughing at students who ask about college costs. Later at the same Romney event:
Asked by an audience member why young people aren’t more engaged in the political process, Romney said they don’t feel the same sense of urgency about issues facing the country.
“Maybe it’s partly our fault, those of us that are running for office,” Romney said. “We don’t spend more time on campus and we probably should spend some more time with students and say, ‘Guys get involved, get educated.’”
What, there aren’t many young people at GOP rallies? I wonder why.
The Politico is reporting that Sam Brownback is expected to end his bid for the Republican nomination for President tomorrow. Brownback never recovered from finishing third, behind fellow social conservative Mike Huckabee, in the Iowa Straw Poll in August. Brownback’s withdrawal from the field helps consolidate Huckabee’s position as the leading social conservative amongst the Republican field.
Brownback’s withdrawal leaves several key Iowa Republican activists up for grabs. Chuck Hurley, one of Iowa’s leading social conservatives, was a Brownback backer and will be courted by Presidential candidates seeking support amongst caucusgoers from the religious right. Another major Brownback supporter was convenience store millionaire Don Lamberti. Lamberti’s son, former Republican State Senator and Congressional candidate Jeff Lamberti, is a leading John McCain supporter. Given their family relationship, not to mention the close ties between McCain and Brownback, it’s quite possible that Lamberti will switch his support to McCain.
Brownback joins Tommy Thompson as the second Republican candidate to drop out directly or indirectly because of the straw poll. (Jim Gilmore also had a short-lived and rather pathetic bid for the Presidency but dropped out to focus his energies on trying to lose a U.S. Senate seat to former Democratic candidate Mark Warner). The Straw Poll will have once again have significantly winnowed the Republican field, depriving Republican caucusgoers of choices in order so that the Republican Party of Iowa can make a few extra bucks.
Stephen Colbert announced on his show last night that he was running for President, albeit only in his native state of South Carolina and as both a Democratic and Republican candidate. Colbert follows a long line of candidates mounted runs for the Presidency as a joke, ranging from Pat Paulson to Al Sharpton. However, unlike both of those candidates, Colbert may draw actual support. Colbert’s television show has millions of viewers every night, some of whom may support him for a lark. Although it is doubtful that Colbert’s support will be more than negligible, his run has to worry second tier candidate from both parties. While previously, candidates like Chris Dodd and Sam Brownback could run without consequences. The absolute worst that would happen to them was that they would finish behind a fringe weirdo like Dennis Kucinich or Tom Tancredo. It would be embarrassing, but both Kucinich and Tancredo are members of the United States Congress. Now respectable second tier candidates face the risk of a truly embarrassing result-finishing behind a comedian who is only pretending to be a fringe weirdo. Candidates who would normally limp through February 5th in hopes of a miracle might get scared off by the risk of humiliation.
In the meantime, Colbert now joins Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel as the only candidates yet to open a field office in Iowa.
Chase has the story - it looks like our friends at the Iowa College Republicans have decided to throw their own sweaty hat into the ring that is the Iowa blogosphere. If the first few days are any indication, it’s going to be a riot.
Here’s a gem from dreamboat and Executive Director Matt Beckstein:
I look forward to reading the insights of the many brilliant minds with the “right” perspectives, and laughing at the argument postings of the morally-challenged leftists. I’d like to encourage professional dialog however, with the exceptions of those who genetically lack the mental capacity on the left, we must be fair of course.
A google search for “argument postings” elicts 34 results. They must have their own language or something. Go figure.
Simon Stevenson at Bleeding Heartland had this to say about the new look College Repubs:
The college republicans have exactly one woman out of their ten executive board members. On the plus side for diversity, I am under the understanding that gay men are actually overrepresented.
Bill Richardson started his campaign as a moderate Democrat who was running based on a rather impressive resume as Governor, Cabinet Member, Diplomat and Congressman. He talked about his experience balancing budgets and opposing gun control. However, Richardson’s campaign has recently changed its tack dramatically. While Richardson still emphasizes his background as a pro-gun moderate in rural areas, he’s now become the peacenik candidate in the rest of Iowa.
Richardson has come out as the only major Presidential candidate to support withdrawing all American troops from Iraq in six months and filmed an ad with bloggers endorsing his policy. He has phased out wearing an American flag lapel pin in favor of the Sensible Priorities pin.
The most extreme sign of Richardson’s tack to the left was his recent hiring of Dave Rogers as his political director. Rogers worked on Dennis Kucinich’s Presidential campaign and was reported by reliable sources to be staffing Kucinich at events as recently as this spring. Rogers has also worked for Western Iowa’s answer to Dennis Kucinich, Joyce Schulte, as well as for the Sensible Priorities campaign.
In contrast, the political directors for 1st tier Presidential campaigns are longtime Iowa political operatives (Chris Hayler for Clinton, Emily Parcell for Obama) or national operatives (Tim Maloney for Edwards). However, they focus on getting the support of legislators, major activists and organized labor. It seems that Rogers will be focusing on the anti-war left (as it is doubtful that someone who operated a salon and day spa is the right person to reach out to the UAW).
Rogers’ hiring further reinforces that Bill Richardson is making a very determined effort to reach out not just anti-war Democrats but, specifically, to the core of peace activists who supported Kucinich in 2004. Although peaceniks are a relatively small bloc, they are very likely caucusgoers. If Richardson is still around 10% then, peace activists could play a decisive role in propping Richardson in up in many precincts and making him viable.
But this is a dangerous balancing game for a candidate who started running as a moderate. Richardson has already lost one key supporter due to his swing to the left and Hotline, among others, finds his policy shift not plausible. Richardson is playing a very delicate balancing game trying to woo both the most conservative caucusgoers and the most liberal over the next ten weeks. If it works, Richardson might become a first tier candidate. But if it doesn’t, Richardson will not only lose but could so in a way that undermines his credibility as a politician in the future.
I’ve written before about Rudy’s penchant for bullying and his contempt for civil liberty. And New Yorkers have long known that Rudy is, well, abrasive.
Here’s a favorite moment of mine from the Mayor’s radio show:
Gravel-voiced Joe from Dutchess County asked in 1999 why the mayor did not attack President Clinton at a fund-raising dinner. When the program returned after a commercial break it sounded as if Joe still was on the line. It was the mayor, imitating Joe’s dese-dem-dere voice.
”This is, uh, Joe from, ahhh, Dutchess County. I unnerstan’ youse went too easy the other night because people applauded or they didn’t applaud for ya or sumthin’–I don’t remember.” Mr. Giuliani giggled. Then he speculated that maybe Joe was a long-term resident of a state prison.
”I think you should go back to making license plates, Joe.”
But Rudy’s contempt for the public is endearing when compared to his pugnacious plans for our country’s foreign policy. The team America’s Mayor has assembled to advise him on foreign affairs is downright frightening. Take a look at this TPMtv segment on Rudy’s minions. It looks like if Rudy becomes the President, he’s going to treat the rest of the world like a bunch of ferrets:
Iowans for Tax Relief recently announced that it was backing a primary candidate against incumbent Republican Clarence Hoffman in the Republican primary in State House District 55 (Ida County and parts of Crawford, Monona and Woodbury County). Hoffman is a fifth term Representative who crossed party lines to support the bill banning discrimination based on sexual orientation.
This is the second time Iowans for Tax Relief has backed a primary candidate against an incumbent Republican so far for the 2008 cycle. The first State Representative that they tried to primary, Walt Tomenga in House District 69 (Johnston and Grimes) has since announced his retirement. This has set up a vicious primary between ITR’s preferred candidate, Erik Helland, and former Iowa basketball player Al Lorenzen who is backed by moderate Republicans like former Governor Robert Ray.
However, while Iowans for Tax Relief is trying to find candidates who represent the true conservative nature of these districts, they’re neglecting that these are actually relatively moderate districts. Neither of these districts are Republican strongholds. In fact, Chet Culver received over 45% of the vote in both districts in 2006. Under normal circumstances, these seats would probably not be top Democratic priorities to pick up seats in the State House. But Iowans for Tax Relief drastically changes that.
With Iowans for Tax Relief’s continued effort to purge the Republican Party of anyone who slightly deviates from its extremist agenda, it’s safe to say that regardless of what happens on the day of the Primary Election, a lot of Republicans will be unhappy. This is especially true if Iowans for Tax Relief’s anointed candidate wins. An win by either or both Helland and Schultz would continue the trend of moderate Republicans like Robert Ray and Maggie Tinsman being isolated in their party and allow a great opportunity for a moderate Democratic candidate to appeal to these disenchanted Republicans and have a good chance at winning what would normally be a safe Republican seat.
Iowans for Tax Relief is certainly doing a good job of making the Republican Party more conservative. But at a terrible cost to any attempt by Republicans to build a majority. For a group that so admires Ronald Reagan, one would think that they would expand their reading in scriptures to include Reagan’s 11th commandment. Instead, they seem more concerned with obscure passages in Leviticus. Passages that Iowa Republicans will have many more years to study while they are in the minority.
Chris Dodd’s campaign announced that it had received the endorsement of State Rep Ray Zirkelbach today. Zirkelbach served two years in Iraq with the National Guard (and is the second Iraq veteran in the Iowa Legislature to make an endorsement in two days.) However, while Dodd’s campaign found an endorsement by an influential young Democrat in North East Iowa to be valuable in and of itself. It has added value, it’s one of the few Iowa endorsements that Dodd has received by a non-firefighter.
Dodd has been endorsed nationally by the International Association of Firefighters (or IAFF), which provided his only real major boost of the campaign. The only two Iowa legislators who endorsed Dodd previously, State Senators Jeff Danielson and Tom Hancock were firefighters and, of Dodd’s statewide leadership team that was announced this summer, a third of its members were affiliated with the IAFF. Dodd had IAFF-affiliated county chairs in seven of the ten counties that make up half of the caucus delegates and in four of the top five counties.
While Zirkelbach isn’t a firefighter, (he works at the prison at Anamosa), it’s still of concern for Dodd that his campaign’s leadership still has not expanded very far beyond its base labor support and that an endorsement by a non-firefighter is of note. With competition increasingly fierce even among the “second tier” candidates, Dodd is not going to get very far on caucus night if most of his supporters are just firefighters loyal to their International.
