The Inequalities Of The Iowa Caucus
February 27th, 2007 at 10:59pm Geraldine
In this post on MyDD by DesMoinesDem that we mentioned before, the way that an Iowa Precinct Caucus works is explained. The post takes care to differentiate the type of party building activity is from a more traditional one-man-one-vote primary. Using data from the Des Moines Register, we did a breakdown of what counties benefited and what counties were hurt by the caucus system in 2004.
In 2004, 122,193 people attended the Democratic Precinct Caucuses to elect 3000 delegates to the State Convention. This averages out to just under 41 caucusgoers per delegate elected. However, this average wildly differed in every county. In Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa and the most Democratic county in the state, it took nearly 80 caucusgoers to elect one delegate. However, in tiny Fremont County located in the heart of Republican Western Iowa, it only took 22 caucusgoers. When one looks at the number of caucusgoers that it takes to elect a delegate in each county, there is a clear pattern. Caucusgoers in small, rural, Republican counties wield disproportionate power compared to those in more urban Democratic counties. In fact, the people who are most disadvantaged by this are students. Of the four counties where it required the most caucusgoers to elect a delegate, three of them had significant student populations: Johnson, Poweshiek and Story. It is a system that favors the old over the young, the rural over the urban, Western Iowa over Eastern Iowa. It is a method that of selecting a candidate that has a clear bias and to be successful, presidential candidates have to spend a disproportionate amount of energy on less populous rural areas. The full breakdown is below the fold:
1 JOHNSON 79.21276596
2 POWESHIEK 69.8
3 JEFFERSON 68.46153846
4 STORY 65.97674419
5 DECATUR 54.625
6 WARREN 52.19148936
7 POLK 50.74651163
8 WINNESHIEK 49.6
9 DALLAS 49.09302326
10 MADISON 45.4
11 CEDAR 42.55555556
12 JASPER 42.45454545
13 MARSHALL 42.4
14 DAVIS 41.25
15 MAHASKA 40.5
16 WOODBURY 40.18518519
17 MUSCATINE 40.11428571
18 BOONE 40
19 MARION 40
20 BUCHANAN 39.47826087
21 IOWA 39.46666667
22 GREENE 39.41666667
23 WAPELLO 39.3902439
24 CLAY 39.33333333
25 ADAIR 39
26 BREMER 38.65217391
27 PALO ALTO 38.54545455
28 LINN 38.22807018
29 WAYNE 38
30 MONROE 37.875
31 HARDIN 37.63157895
32 WEBSTER 37.34146341
33 HAMILTON 37.29411765
34 LOUISA 37.1
35 WASHINGTON 36.89473684
36 DES MOINES 36.84313725
37 BUENA VISTA 36.8125
38 APPANOOSE 36.76923077
39 SIOUX 36.18181818
40 UNION 35.69230769
41 DUBUQUE 35.60952381
42 ADAMS 35.4
43 KOSSUTH 34.9
44 SCOTT 34.57142857
45 HARRISON 34.5
46 MONONA 34.5
47 KEOKUK 34.4
48 POTTAWATTAMIE 34.27941176
49 JACKSON 34.19047619
50 MILLS 33.3
51 TAMA 33.26315789
52 CLAYTON 33.15
53 RINGGOLD 32.83333333
54 BLACK HAWK 32.72058824
55 GUTHRIE 32.66666667
56 PLYMOUTH 32.47058824
57 VAN BUREN 32.33333333
58 FAYETTE 32.18181818
59 SHELBY 32.11111111
60 IDA 32
61 HENRY 31.84210526
62 CASS 31.75
63 BENTON 31.74074074
64 CHICKASAW 31.5
65 PAGE 30.6
66 CARROLL 30.23809524
67 AUDUBON 30.125
68 HOWARD 30
69 FRANKLIN 29.81818182
70 GRUNDY 29.8
71 WRIGHT 29.69230769
72 CRAWFORD 29.58333333
73 FLOYD 29.16666667
74 CERRO GORDO 28.83636364
75 LUCAS 28.44444444
76 O’BRIEN 28.1
77 JONES 28.04545455
78 CLARKE 28
79 ALLAMAKEE 27.69230769
80 BUTLER 27.23076923
81 DELAWARE 27.16666667
82 WINNEBAGO 26.91666667
83 SAC 26.8
84 LEE 26.51111111
85 DICKINSON 26.5
86 HUMBOLDT 26.5
87 POCAHONTAS 26.5
88 LYON 26.33333333
89 CALHOUN 26.09090909
90 OSCEOLA 25.75
91 MONTGOMERY 25.375
92 TAYLOR 24.83333333
93 WORTH 24.8
94 MITCHELL 23.16666667
95 HANCOCK 23.09090909
96 EMMET 23
97 CHEROKEE 22.69230769
98 CLINTON 22.47457627
99 FREMONT 22.28571429
Related Posts
- A (Partial) Defense of the Iowa Caucuses
- Wacky Caucus Poll Numbers
- Dawn Pettengill Defects to House Republican Caucus
- Afternoon Blog Roundup
- Obama and Edwards Tied in Iowa
Entry Filed under: Iowa Caucuses
Related Searches: caucus works, precinct caucuses, precinct caucus, caucus system, des moines register
6 Comments Add your own
1. Gark | February 28th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Excellent post–it is not that shocking as the same thing is true about Dem platform committees
2. Jerry | February 28th, 2007 at 11:30 am
County representation at state convention depends on Democratic votes cast in the recent election. Where Dem performance is high (Johnson county), caucus buzz is high, too. Candidates actually campaign there. So they get big turnouts at caucus.
Do you think state convention make-up should reflect November voting patterns or just reflect caucus enthusiasm?
3. desmoinesdem | March 1st, 2007 at 12:26 am
Thanks for digging up this information, Geraldine–I appreciate your spending the time to compile this information.
It confirms what I have suspected based on anecdotal evidence about how few people turn up for caucuses in some of those smaller cities, towns and rural areas.
If this trend continues next year, it will give Edwards yet another advantage on caucus night, and will put Obama at a further disadvantage.
I find it interesting that some pretty Democratic counties seemed to have a lot lower turnout on caucus night, based on the caucus-goer/state delegate ratio (Clinton, Black Hawk, Cerro Gordo). Was it because candidates didn’t spend as much time there, so there was less buzz? Or is it that there are more shift workers or working class people who can’t take an hour or two on a Monday night to vote?
I will link to this post when I write the next diary in my series on the Iowa caucuses (that could be a while).
4. Geraldine | March 1st, 2007 at 9:11 am
Des Moines Dem, thanks. I’m not quite sure what the correlation is in counties like Clinton or Black Hawk or Cerro Gordo. I wish there was more data to use but there’s nothing obvious. In terms of blue collar Democrats, even though turnout was low in Clinton County, it was around average in Scott and Jackson counties. The same thing holds in Southeast Iowa. Even though turnout was low in Lee County it was around average in Wapello or Des Moines. The only clear correlation I can see besides high turnout in heavily student areas is high turnout in the Des Moines media market. Six out of the top ten counties are in the Des Moines media market. (Poweshiek, Story, Warren, Polk, Dallas and Madison).
5. Dave | March 29th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
I have been sick to my stomach, because I voted for President Bush. Now that I have gained my senses back, I will follow the path of a Independent. Those who have started the race for the White House, better be aware that the majority of the American people have had–more than enough?
The main signatories are being watched carefully, should they approve of any blanket amnesty; by any name. Then the obnoxious agenda of a NORTH AMERICAN UNION, will also be the harbinger of their political death knell. More and more of citizens realize that these two agendas are connected. Those who pander to the corporate CARTELS or the open border advocates, will be well rewarded for the traitorous acts
6. MyDD :: Direct Democracy &hellip | December 14th, 2007 at 10:44 am
[…] put up a great post at Iowa Progress earlier this year on The Inequalities of the Iowa Caucus. The post demonstrates that in 2004, it took more voters to assign a state delegate in some […]
Leave a Comment
Some HTML allowed:
<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>
Trackback this post | Subscribe to the comments via RSS Feed