Nick Ryan in Denial
December 20th, 2006 at 08:08pm Ben Weyl
In an interview with Hotline today, Nick Ryan, campaign manager for Jim Nussle’s losing gubernatorial bid, said:
“Looking at central and eastern Iowa — I think Republicans can be encouraged that the right candidates CAN win there. Absent the 2006 wave, both congressional seats in eastern Iowa were held by Republicans — by two very good, effective congressmen (Nussle and Leach).”
I think Ryan meant to say that the right candidates COULD HAVE won there (note: the word “can” was capitalized by Hotline). Nussle and Leach had been congressmen for 15 and 30 years, respectively. They had built up a high enough level of trust that people could overlook their Republican flaws. Now that Democrats are in control, the GOP won’t be able to build up a sense of loyalty, which was really the only thing keeping them alive in these solidly blue districts. The first and second CDs went for both Gore and Kerry (and perhaps Clinton but I can’t navigate that darn Secretary of State’s website very well). Unless Braley or Loebsack make a huge mistake, I think it will be a very long time before any Republican can retake either of those seats.
But Ryan’s not dumb — you should check out the whole thing, in which he discusses, among other things, whether Harkin can be beat and who are the rising IA stars from both parties.
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3 Comments Add your own
1. Drew Miller | December 22nd, 2006 at 6:04 am
The first and second district didn’t exist for Clinton, or really even Gore. They were redefined in 2002. Leach actually had to move to stay in the 2nd, which became more liberal than it had been previously. At least that’s my understanding of the situation, yo.
2. Chase | December 22nd, 2006 at 3:05 pm
Yeah, Nussle and Leach would’ve had to run against each other in a primary if Leach hadn’t moved.
But I think it’s fair to go at least as far back as Gore. Redistricting might’ve moved the lines around between 1 and 2, but together they still cover a pretty similar area compared to 2000. For what Ben’s arguing, I think it works.
3. Ben Weyl | December 24th, 2006 at 12:30 am
Yeah, I know the districts changed — that’s in part why I wrote that Nussle and Leach had been congressmen for X many years as opposed to saying they had “represented” those districts for those years. A slight rhetorical trick, if you will. Thanks for both of your thoughts, though.
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