A Nominee in 2 Days? Maybe Not.
June 4th, 2006 at 12:42pm Geraldine
The Des Moines Register released a poll today that was conducted May 29-June 1, so I imagine this will be the last numbers we get before Tuesday. Here’s how it breaks down:
Culver 36% - Blouin 28% - Fallon 21% - Mohammed 1% - 14% undecided
It doesn’t look like the survey questions created the alleged “Fallon supporters don’t fit the likely voters criteria” effect, but with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points and a huge chunk of undecideds, a convention decision is becoming more and more likely. I wish Drew’s blog was still around so we could review what the delegate break down would be.
The article accompanying the poll does a surprisingly good job of highlighting and analyzing the things each candidate has going for him: Blouin is counting on union organizers for his GOTV, but according to the poll Culver has more support amongst union families. Fallon claims independents and Republicans will jump ship and vote in the Democratic primary, but the poll also says Blouin and Culver have picked up more outside the party support. Culver has garnered the most youth support, but people over 64 are much more likely to turn out. The article also does a nice job of interviewing supporters who sum up the main issues of the campaign, but you can read that for yourself.
Finally, the poll also asked if people wanted to continue with the direction and priorities for the state set by Governor Vilsack. A whopping 50% said no! I definitely wouldn’t want to commence my bid for the presidency with that kind of sentiment a brewin’, but that’s just me.
All in all, I think this quote from a Fallon press release sums it up best: “‘We’ll find out on election day,’ he said while eating a sandwich.”
p.s. The coverage of Mike Blouin’s bus tour on his website actually resembles a blog! After months and months of campaigning and claiming to be tech savvy and “hip”, someone has finally grasped that “blog” is more than a buzz word! I bet Andy McGuire had something to do with this. (She told us she’s addicted to blogs.)
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3 Comments Add your own
1. noneed4thneed | June 4th, 2006 at 1:38 pm
I thought it was interesting that Fallon was leading in the 3rd District. If Fallon doesn’t win the Primary, maybe a run for Congress when Boswell retires could take place.
2. IA-Gov: Culver leads in l&hellip | June 4th, 2006 at 10:09 pm
[…] The threshold for the primary is 35% so if no candidate gets that much then it goes to the state convention for the nomination. With 14% of Democrats still undecided, that doesn’t seem likely to happen but there still is a chance. Hannah over at Iowa Progress thinks a convention decision is likely. I don’t feel that way — we’re going to have a winner Tuesday night. It might be close (ok, it could be really close) but we will have a candidate who hits the threshold. If I were old enough, I might be willing to wager a bit on Culver winning, but since I’m not 21 I’ll let the folks who are of age do the betting. […]
3. Gavin | June 4th, 2006 at 11:56 pm
It would be awesome to have Fallon as a US Congressman sometime down the road.
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